Central Asia after 2014

By AzerNews

The political situation is changing in Central Asia as the 2014 withdrawal of the NATO troops from Afghanistan is getting closer.

Recently U.S Deputy Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Robert Blake said at a press conference in Astana that the U.S will maintain its presence in Afghanistan and Central Asia after 2014.

"President Obama has not yet made a decision on how many troops will remain in Afghanistan after 2014, and until such a decision is made, there is no clarity which bases and transit centers will be preserved. But I want to say explicitly that we will keep our presence in Afghanistan and Central Asia, and will do everything to maintain peace and stability, not only in Afghanistan but in the entire Central Asian region," Blake said.

The question is which of five Central Asian countries will provide the presence of troops in its territory.

While Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are approaching NATO and the U.S., Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan continue their traditional Russia-oriented policy, experts believe. However, several experts claim that any of the Central Asian countries with the exception of Turkmenistan could potentially provide some sort of facilities to the U.S. or NATO forces.

Stabilization of Afghanistan and its economic rehabilitation are among the most important issues in the foreign policy of Kazakhstan. Due to this fact, the tendency of rapprochement with NATO and the U.S is observed in Kazakhstan.

In January 2013, Kazakh Foreign Minister Yerlan Idrissov held a meeting with NATO Secretary General Rasmussen in Brussels during which ways to maintain security in Afghanistan after 2014 were discussed.

According to Idrissov, cooperation is important for both sides in order to ensure lasting security, stability and socio-economic recovery in Afghanistan.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev stated at the opening of the 11th Eurasian Media Forum that the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2014 will not lead to catastrophic consequences for Central Asia.

"Our Central Asia region as with the world in general, enters a period of change and the problems of regional security in the global dimension are very crucial. I would like to say that I do not accept the catastrophic theories that we hear from different sides. I do not believe that the time of a countdown has been set approaching hour X when withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan will begin in 2014," Nazarbayev said.

According to Nazarbayev, the mission of the coalition forces in Afghanistan could bring positive results.

"Though there are problems in the process of an intra-Afghan settlement, there are positive changes as well," Nazarbayev said. "I always emphasize the importance of the measures taken by the international community that are aimed at post-conflict peace building and development of the Afghan economy."

Recently the tendency of rapprochement with the U.S and NATO is obviously seen in Uzbekistan as well.

Blake stated during his recent visit to Tashkent that the U.S. relations with Uzbekistan are not limited with the cooperation on Afghanistan, they also include the expansion of cooperation in the fields of economy, energy and climate change.

He also noted that a major part of the international coalition cargo goes through Uzbekistan, as the latter and Afghanistan are linked through railroad ties.

"The Afghan problem will continue to be an important part of the U.S. relations with Uzbekistan after 2014," Blake said.

Experts believe that if considered the good relations between the two countries, it is likely the U.S. will still use the Uzbek airport at Navoi after 2014 as Uzbekistan is already allowing the U.S. military planes to use this facility.

Uzbekistan aims to purchase U.S military equipment - night-vision goggles as well as large and expensive American-made goods like MRAP vehicles, 14-ton armored utility trucks that help protect troops from roadside bombs, small arms, mine detectors, navigation equipment and possibly drones which will be brought from Afghanistan.

Another NATO member, Britain, also plans to sell military hardware to Uzbekistan in exchange for safe passage for the thousands of vehicles and containers that are to be brought home from Afghanistan, British Defense Secretary Philip Hammond said.

Not only Uzbekistan is interested in cooperation with NATO members; NATO states aim to cooperate with Uzbekistan as well. The goal of Uzbekistan in this cooperation is to maintain its security while NATO members' main aim in their cooperation with Uzbekistan is to maintain safe passage of military equipment through Uzbekistan and to provide the security of the region by selling part of the equipment to the Central Asian state.

After 2014, NATO would have at least two bases in Central Asia to use for re-supplying those troops who remain in Afghanistan, one in Kazakhstan, another in Uzbekistan, experts believe.

However, according to several experts, the withdrawal of the NATO troops from Afghanistan will destabilize the situation in the Central Asia as it has very long borders with Afghanistan.

It is noteworthy that the situation in the Central Asia region contributes to militarization and growth of military expenditure. According to several experts, the increasing threat of terrorism in the world as well as in Central Asia is indirectly contributing to militarization.

In general, the main issue for Central Asia is stability. If there is stability in the region, investments will flow to the Central Asian states and their economy will flourish, but if security is not maintained, it will negatively affect economic development in the whole region.