Professor Shale Horowitz: Azerbaijan is indirectly in conflict with Russia, because of Russia’s close ties with Armenia

Azerbaijan has its own way towards integrating into Euro-Atlantic structures. But there is one example in the region – Turkey, which knocks at Europe’s doors for years. Many in the region believe this is due to it being Muslim. IS that going to be the same case for Azerbaijan some day?

There is a religious obstacle insofar as Islamism is influential. I define Islamism as emphasizing Islam as an exclusive political identity with expansionist goals (including political domination and imposition of Sharia law). This is more of a problem for EU entry than NATO entry. This is because there is free migration between EU countries, and no non-Muslim-majority country can easily accept large numbers of Islamic-leaning migrants. I am not saying that Muslims are the same as Islamists. Up until two or three decades ago, Islamists were quite rare among Muslims. It may be so again sometime in the future. I think Azerbaijan is more like Albania than Turkey. It is small, and it is relatively secular and pro-western. But politically, the EU cannot let in Azerbaijan before Turkey.

Russia and Iran – Azerbaijan closest neighbors, don’t want to see Europe at their border. What kind of factor could this be for Azerbaijan in terms of integrating into European structures?

Yes. In some ways, this makes it easier, because there may be a greater need for local allies to contain threats from Iran, and to a lesser extent, Russia. But having an active conflict with one of these countries, as Georgia does, is definitely a problem. No country wants to be drawn into direct conflict unless its core interests are at stake. Azerbaijan is indirectly in conflict with Russia, because of Russia’s close ties with Armenia. That definitely makes it harder for the west to accept Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijanis should realize that integration with the west is a viable long-term goal. Though many obstacles will have to be overcome, the goal is worth it! Build the rule of law, provide good public services, and accumulate wealth. Wait patiently for better political opportunities in the future. Yet always rely on your own strength.

Speaking of Russia’s close ties with Armenia, does West have to worry about that in terms of stability in the region?

No. Armenia knows that the West cannot be relied upon, and that it is no substitute for close relations with Russia. Armenia can have its cake and eat it, too. That is, it can capture almost all benefits of closer relations with the west, while maintaining its alliance with Russia.


/APA/