Russian professor: If Azerbaijani IDPs return to Karabakh it will be a manslaughter

According to Armenian media, the opposition of this country predicts that rule of the current regime in the country will end soon. In your opinion, any chance of this happening?

Firstly, you need to know that a revolution is always possible in any society. XIX and XX centuries have witnessed numerous revolutions some of which achieved goals while some failed. In our times many used to think that the limit of revolution has exhausted. No way! Man does not change, it is rather society that changes in formal aspects, and therefore limit of the revolution has not exhausted. And the possibility of revolutionary change can be excluded neither for the Third World countries nor to the West. Some riots may occur, but to overthrow a government is a completely different thing. Take a look at the events in the Arab world which saw downfall of two dictators, whose regimes seemed very strong.
 
Accordingly, the same can happen in any country, even in Russia, the United States and Europe. Therefore, theoretically, there is no guarantee at all that the revolution will not happen in Armenia. Armenia experiences a lot of political problems. Sargsyan regime is much less stable and cohesive than that of his predecessor Kocharian. Though the Sargsyan regime is considered by many as a continuation of the previous one, in fact, differences still there, and the current management policy of Armenia, in my opinion, is inferior to that of its predecessor. It is less effective and less socially oriented.

It's an open secret that Americans stand behind the opposition led by Ter-Petrosyan. On the other hand, the external support for the opposition does not justify its once unsuccessful national and economic policy. But the question is whether policies pursued in Armenia will change after the revolution. There is great skepticism, because, in principle, nothing can change. Armenia has reached a certain common position in domestic and foreign policy and any attempt to offer something different, for example, to pass under the patronage of the United States, will inevitably lead to an exacerbation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and new problems with Russia.

What forces can take up the power in Armenia? In your opinion, will Moscow accept such a change?

Moscow is not very much in control over the situation in Armenia. It is quite satisfied with the status quo that followed the hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh in 1990s. In fact, none of the successive political regimes in Armenia questioned this status quo. Therefore, Moscow is happy about Serzh Sargsyan regime more than anyone else. Moscow would like to leave things unchanged since any alteration will undermine situation and Russia's influence in the South Caucasus. Iran has the same interest. That is, Moscow is satisfied with the current state of affairs no matter it is good or bad. If a revolution in Armenia is successful, Russia will do its utmost so that new political forces leave everything as is. And by the way, it can be not only Ter-Petrosyan, but also many other ambitious figures.

Following their last regional visit, the mediators talked about some "positive developments". What are your comments in this regard?

I've said many times that, in my opinion, the Karabakh problem, in general, has no solution. And the best thing for all parties and participants involved in the peace process is to maintain the status quo, that is, legal recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan, and practical recognition, on default, the Armenian occupation and control over Nagorno Karabakh. This suits absolutely everyone except Americans.

Therefore, any shift, which is theoretically possible in this issue, will lead to an escalation of the conflict. One can imagine that the parties have entered a peace agreement and the Armenians have agreed to return of Azerbaijani IDPs to Nagorno-Karabakh. So what do we get? Manslaughter. One doesnt need to be a prophet to predict that that the first Azerbaijani who will return to Shusha will be either a potential victim, or it will be starting point of revolutionary actions.
 
Therefore, a lack of efficiency in the OSCE Minsk Group efforts is rather a success. Because any change about Nagorno-karabakh will lead to very complex, possibly bloody consequences and will certainly weaken positions of Russia and Iran in the region. The meetings between leaders of parties to the conflict are essentially letting off the steam, some sort of warning of armed conflict, no more. This conflict simply has no positive solution. Whichever of the parties succeeds in the event of a resumption of war, it will immediately be condemned by the international community.

And Russia still holds influence in the region, showing its ability to keep the situation under control while Iran does not want peacekeepers from the West to appear in the region in this case. So, it is better co-chairs come out with positive speeches than exacerbate the situation.

In general, do you predict renewed active phase of hostilities in the conflict zone, or is it totally impossible?
 
The war can resume at any time as there obvious conditions for it. There is an unresolved territorial dispute, there is a rigid ethnic confrontation in the region and there is uncertain legal status of the Armenian-controlled region.

But this can only happen once U.S. decides to blow up the situation. Guided by its “divide and rule” policy, the United States may back both parties to the conflict for this purpose as in case with Israel and Palestine. That is, they somehow can push Baku to the outbreak of hostilities, and hint Yerevan to the possibility of their recognition of the legal status of Nagorno Karabakh.
 
Russia somehow cools down Americans’ aspirations to blow up the situation through smooth relations with Baku and presence of its troops in Armenia. But how long will it last? Russia’s weakening as a result of some social upheavals and even revolutionary events in Moscow can make new blood around Nagorno-Karabakh region more likely. But there are absolutely no prerequisites for the peaceful resolution of this conflict.


/Day.Az/