Would Armenia dare to provoke new war in Nagorno-Karabakh?

Interview with member of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (Parliament) from the ruling Justice and Development Party, deputy chair of the Committee on Political Affairs and Security of the OSCE PA Canan Kalsin.


Armenian side has stepped up provocation on the contact line of Armenian and Azerbaijani troops lately. What are the chances of a war and what steps will Turkey take in this case?

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict’s moving to the phase of full-scale armed conflict threatens to destabilize situation not only in the South Caucasus, but also neighboring regions up until the Balkans. Turkey seeks to resolve the conflict, while it, so to speak, is "frozen". Provocations by Armenians along the Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line aim to increase tension in the region. There are forces in Armenia who do not want peace. In addition, majority of Armenia’s 3 million citizens are outside the country. Armenian economy is entirely dependent on the assistance of compatriots abroad, many of whom are very nationalistic. But I am confident that Armenia would not dare to provoke a war.

Armenian diaspora intends to raise wave of lawsuits in the European courts against Turkey on the so-called "Armenian genocide". In your opinion, does this move aim to force Ankara to make concessions under pressure?

Turkey has long opened all the historical archives. But as you know, the Armenian side refuses to open its archives. Turkey’s position is that the issue of "genocide" should be dealt with by international organizations and historians. Turkey believes that no genocide took place and offers historians to conduct a research into this issue. Why is this study has not yet been carried out is a question to be answered by the Armenian side.

Can the Turkish-Russian rapprochement give a positive impetus to the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict?

You've got to remember that at the dawn of the Karabakh conflict, Russia strongly armed, trained Armenia and thus predetermined the further course of events in this confrontation. However, I think that the rapprochement between Turkey and Russia will create a favorable atmosphere in the settlement of frozen conflicts. The fact is that the tension in a particular region causes a reaction in other regions and countries under the principle of contagion. For example, the results of the war in Iraq still have a negative impact on neighboring countries.

Does Turkey face pressure to open Turkish-Armenian border? Is this problem related with the settlement of Karabakh conflict?

Turkey pursues an independent foreign policy, and do not think that it will open its border with Armenia under pressure. When Armenia declared its independence in the early 1990s, Turkey was the first country to open borders and air space with the country. But after the Armenian authorities begun to pursue radical nationalist policies, we were forced to close the border. A lot of Armenian citizens are illegally working in Turkey. The economy of this country to some extent is dependent on Turkey.

The border between Turkey and Armenia can be opened on mutually acceptable terms and it will have a very positive impact on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. At the same time, opening the border creates opportunities for restoration of the Armenian-Turkish rail link, which connects the South Caucasus region with Central Asia. This railway is of particular importance in terms of integration of Turkic states. Opening of Armenian-Turkish border will step up Ankara’s role in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. However, the only condition for this is progress is the liberation of occupied Azerbaijani territories.


/Day.Az/