Russian analyst on what stance Russia, U.S. and Europe will take at early days of possible hostilities in Karabakh

Do you share the view of some Russian, America and Azerbaijani media outlets that the latest developments in the South Caucasus including the recent Russia-Armenia deal extending lease of Gyumri military base by 49 years shows that U.S. position in the region has weakened while that of Russia has strengthened?

Russian-Armenian protocol extending presence of Russian military base in Gyumri by 49 years was almost inevitable, because both Yerevan and Moscow was interested in this. But Russia has no immediate decisions about how it will act in the event of renewed hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

One can only assume that Moscow will do its utmost to prevent this war and the events in Kyrgyzstan showed that Russia is against the use of its forces outside Russia, so as not to strain the relations between Russians living in the states of the former USSR and the local population. I do not agree with the statements claming that U.S. influence has weakened in the region. Moreover, as to the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, position of the U.S. and Russia coincide in this respect – both of the powers do not want the hostilities to renew.

Other than war, are there any ways of restoring the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, recognized by the whole world, amid a non-constructive position of Yerevan in a peaceful settlement of the Karabakh which has lasted more than fifteen years?

The territorial conflict, as practice shows, can last very long. It is enough to recall situation with Northern Cyprus, which is not recognized by world. But there is also no a military solution to this conflict either, as there is no EU assistance to Cyprus in addressing this problem.

As for the likelihood of a military solution to the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it is not a political issue. If Baku assesses its military superiority over the Armenian army as crucial, it would make sense for Azerbaijan to launch an operation to restore its territorial integrity. If Azerbaijan lacks such advantage, it is not worth to start fighting.

And what will the position of the United States, Russia and Europe be in case Azerbaijan, tired of imitation of negotiations on the part of Armenia, will be forced to resort to military ways to liberate its occupied territories?

The positions of Russia, the U.S. and Europe will be uncertain at early days of the military hostilities. And a lot depends on how long these hostilities will last. If the war is short-term, the world's leading powers will recognize the status quo that would emerge at the end of war. If this war drags on, the world's leading powers will use all means at their disposal to stop it and, as in the first case, recognize the status quo, which would evolve in the war by that time.
 
I will paraphrase the question. On assistance of what allies Azerbaijan can rely in the event of renewed hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh?

I once again offer to recall the situation with Cyprus. Are European countries allies of Cyprus? Certainly are. Do European countries offer Cyprus real help to solve the problem of Northern Cyprus? No, they do not. So, none of his allies will offer real help to Azerbaijan if the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh resume. Similarly, Armenia will not have allies, if it carries out offensive. In the case of defensive action of the Armenian side, as I noted above, position of world powers will depend on the time length of the new Armenian-Azerbaijani war in Nagorno-Karabakh.


/Day.Az/