Editor-in-chief of Russian magazine has a surprise version about Russia's renewal of lease on military base in Armenia

How would you comment on a recent protocol extending deployment of Russian military base in Gyumri for another 49 years?

Nothing unusual has happened since Russia did not create a new base and did not expand the Gyumri base. No one doubted that term of deployment of the Russian base in Armenia would be extended. Yerevan and Moscow had no problems about this military base. Moreover, Russia does not pay Armenia for this base while it pays for one in Ukraine.

What matters is that why they renewed the lease exactly now. It is known that the originally the contract on lease was signed for 25 years, and this term has not yet expired. So, I think this is because the Russian defense industry sells S-300 divisions to Azerbaijan. In order to nullify the excitement which appeared in Armenia in this regard, Moscow decided to take this political move extending lease of its military base for 49 years.  
 
And I am sure that Azerbaijan was aware that the Russian base in Armenia will be there as long as Moscow needs it. It does not matter whether they sign a contract now or a few years later. Thus, I repeat, nothing significant has happened.
 
Actually, I think that presence of a foreign military bases of one state on the territory of  another, is, mildly speaking, a sort of shadow on the sovereignty of the state. On the other hand, we can say that Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and its members, under agreement, can deploy their military bases on the territory of its allies.

But there is very different mood in Armenia over the signing of the protocol…

I read Armenian newspapers, statements of Armenian politicians and political analysts that in case of a war in Karabakh, Russian soldiers will fight shoulder to shoulder with Armenians. I can say with confidence that this will not happen. Russian soldiers do have something to defend besides Armenia. Armenia is the sovereign state, and if the world witnesses violation of this country’s sovereignty, CSTO countries will need consensus of all members of the organization to join the war on the side of Armenia.

And if we assume that Azerbaijan will become this so-called "aggressor", I do not think, for example, Kazakhstan, will vote in favor of the CSTO allied troops’ fighting against Azerbaijan. The same can be said about Belarus, which will not oppose Baku either.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that the Collective Security Treaty Organization will defend Armenia. But, first, he says the same thing about all CSTO members. Secondly, no one is going to encroach on the territory of Armenia in our case. Nagorno-Karabakh is an occupied part of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan intends to recovers its land, but not to violate the borders of Armenia itself.
 
Let them don’t say that Armenia and the so-called "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" are two different sovereign states when it is advantageous and, in another case, say that they are almost one state in order to protect Armenia.

Can we expect Serzh Sargsyan to take some positive steps in terms of the settlement process following the meeting between Armenian and Russian presidents which discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

This will unlikely happen. Moreover, it is clear that the co-chairs of OSCE Minsk are tired of dense work on all sorts of treaties, the Madrid principles. Given that the parties can not come to a compromise, the mediators have decided to make some pause. This may be done in expectation that persons, who grew up in Armenia itself and understand challenges facing this country and that the fate of the Armenian people should not be sacrificed to interests of ethnic Armenians, will come to power in Armenia.

So perhaps, the mediators expect Armenian citizens to understand this and elect a leader from Armenia, but not from among former citizens of the Azerbaijan SSR.

Is the military solution to the conflict likely to prevail?

Probably, Armenia wants to Azerbaijan to begin a war so that to tell the whole about Baku’s alleged aggressive attitude. But I am sure that Azerbaijan will not yield to possible provocations as it did before. And that Azerbaijan strengthens its military might is certainly important and necessary decision. And Armenia should know that Azerbaijan reserves the right to resolve the conflict by military means when the situation reaches a final standstill.


/Day.Az/