"If a new Karabakh war starts, majority of external forces will have little opportunity or desire to interfere"

In your opinion, may the Armenian troops leave Azerbaijan’s occupied lands as a result of peace talks?

It is clear, that under a political settlement, Armenia will be forced to withdraw from the occupied regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. This is one of the main parts of the Madrid principles which will probably become basis of a final peace agreement. The negotiations are now focused on the timing of the withdrawal of Armenian troops and the manner in which the Armenian troops will be withdrawn. The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is somewhat different. The region will have a temporary status and its safety will be ensured by international peacekeeping force until final status of Nagorno-Karabakh is decided.

The tension on the contact line of Azerbaijani and Armenian armed forces has increased substantially in recent years. Does this mean that negotiating potential of the parties has exhausted and they are ready to resume hostilities? How do you assess the probability of a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Although there was a bloody clash on the front line in recent times, in my opinion, this is nothing new. However, the time at which the incident occurred caused assumptions that the clash was due to the recent meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Saint Petersburg. The potential of peace process has not been exhausted. It should be noted that for the last 2 years there has been progress and both sides are probably closer to a settlement than ever before. Nevertheless, there are still serious problems to be addressed and which lead to the slowdown in negotiations. First of all, I mean the withdrawal of Armenian forces from occupied territories of Azerbaijan. There is always risk of war in Karabakh, but large-scale military operations are impossible without political decisions by Armenia or Azerbaijan. Currently, both sides can achieve much through larger peace than a war.

In your opinion, what will reaction of world powers be, in case of resumed war in Karabakh?

If a new war starts, the majority of the external forces will have little opportunity or desire to interfere. U.S. would not want to be drawn into the region, the EU and the UN do not have sufficient capacity for reliable and rapid deployment of troops, and NATO would not want to provoke Moscow. Turkey can intervene if the situation is very serious, but it did not do so during the war in the 1990s and it will unlikely do this now. Russia, perhaps, is the only power that could intervene. Nevertheless, minor fighting, or even liberation of one or two regions by the Azerbaijani troops will not lead to military intervention by third countries. In any case, military intervention may occur if only all the political tools prove inadequate.

How do you see the future of our region?  

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the most serious problem in the region. If resolved peacefully, the South Caucasus will have great potential for economic, political and social development. If the conflict remains unresolved, the region will remain tense, divided and unable to fully realize its potential as an economic and a transit hub between Europe and Central Asia. At present, the prospects for conflict settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh and Georgia seem to be not particularly bright. However, there have been some positive developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution, and the situation in Georgia seems to be relatively stable after the 2008 war with Russia. However, peace in the region is still a remote prospect while today the chances of another war in the South Caucasus are also not so high.


/1news.az/