Azerbaijani expert: Armenia's refusal to compromise will make resumption of war more probable

According to Azerbaijani FM Elmar Mammadyarov, the Almaty meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers was fruitless. How do you assess results of this meeting?

I think that we are witnessing approach of this serious process to culmination. The mediators have practically summed up the negotiation process and submitted an updated document to the parties to which they should either say "yes" and move towards political agreement or answer "no" which will lead to a very dangerous vacuum. It is not clear what we can be talked about more once the parties do not agree and if the talks begin to lose sense.

Co-chairs of OSCE Minsk Group stressed in a statement after meeting with foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan that "these proposed elements have been conceived as an integrated whole and any attempt to select some elements over others would make it impossible to achieve a balanced solution.” So, does it mean that the parties should not shift its priorities in respect to principles of territorial integrity and right of nations to self-determination?

Co-chairs are absolutely right that one cannot select any one of the two principles and absolutize it. I think that it fully applies to position of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, by agreeing with the updated version of the Madrid principles, demonstrated that it takes all of these principles as a whole and does not single out any one of them. Yerevan’s refusal to accept the updated document as well as Sargsyan’s proposal to sign a separate agreement on nonuse of force still show it is the Armenian side that selects one principle.

In my view, the situation is already very clear, and Armenia cannot continue to simulate the negotiation process, without taking any steps to compromise. But the problem is that the co-chairs have no will to give an open and objective assessment of what is happening. They always try to avoid the important point that Azerbaijan has agreed to the updated document, but Armenia has not. And their reluctance to characterize the current situation allows Armenia still simulate some part in the talks without making any compromises.
 
I think at this stage Azerbaijan must demonstrate strong political will and refuse to participate in the simulation of this process. It is necessary to demand Yerevan to display clear position towards the updated Madrid principles and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs towards Armenia's position, which does not allow to step into preparation stage of larger peace agreement.

Before the Almaty meeting, the Azerbaijani foreign minister stated that the meeting will focus on liberation of Kalbajar and Lachin regions which was later refuted by Yerevan. In your opinion, why did Azerbaijan, unlike Armenia, disclose details of the negotiation process?

Azerbaijan’s foreign minister is not the only person who does so. Details of the peace negotiations have been widely disclosed by other Azerbaijani officials as well.

I do not think it is coincidence. I think there is some policy behind this. This is done publicly in the presence of journalists. This is some kind of message to Armenian society and international community. So that everyone knows what details are discussed in the talks and on what ones there is already consent and what issues are being negotiated.

I think that is a response to the policy of the Armenian leadership, which takes advantage of unawareness of society about details of negotiations and continues to play a double game one at official level in talks where it simulates a willingness to compromise, but always delays important decisions, and the second one with its society where it displays tough stance absolutely inadequate to realities of negotiations. 

Thus, the Armenian public opinion is based on stringent position. To counteract this policy of the Armenian leadership, I think, Azerbaijan decided to bring all information available into the notice of people. Of course, this has an impact on the Armenian society, too.
 
What are your predictions on settlement of the conflict? Can the war resume?

I must say that this question worries many. I participated in several meetings with the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs in recent times, and we also asked them a question - what will happen next if Armenia refuses to accept the updated Madrid document? The most dangerous thing here is that no one can give a clear answer to this.

Probably, the parties will have nothing to talk about because no one will come up with new settlement approaches and new principles any more. All that was possible, everything in conformity with international law, the Helsinki principles, and international practice have already been used in the peace negotiations, which lasted more than 15 years. It is simply impossible to invent new approaches and attitudes. 

Therefore, Yerevan’s refusal to compromise actually devalues the very idea of any negotiations. In this case, probability of armed conflict that has existed all these years will increase significantly.


/Day.Az/