Russian political expert on possibility of U.S. and Russian bases in Azerbaijan

Just days ago, Azerbaijan Parliament passed a military doctrine which contains permissibility of presence of foreign military bases on country’s territory. In your opinion, are foreign military bases likely to appear in Azerbaijan?

To speak of such a probability, it is necessary to know the time horizon. If we consider the medium-and long-term perspective (more than 10 years), the chances are very high. Now it is time of regional, but not global blocs. Due to its strategic position, Azerbaijan is of interest for various kinds of blocs, so foreign bases will appear in the country sooner or later. It can be either Turkish, Russian, Iranian, or someone else’s.

May American bases be deployed in Azerbaijan or Baku will opt not to jeopardize its relations with Iran for the sake of overseas partner?

Prospects of American bases being deployed in Azerbaijan are not so good. Azerbaijan has chosen a very far-sighted strategy, carrying out all options for cooperation with NATO within the individual program, but not voicing intention to enter into this block. Influence of Americans in the world including South Caucasus continues to weaken, and eventually they will turn into one of the regional powers, which is primarily interested in military presence in South America and possibly in the Pacific.

Gabala Radar Station in Azerbaijani territory is currently leased by Russia. May this station be given official status of base given Russia’s intentions to it lease on a long-term?

I am not sure. Much depends on whether Russia will reach an agreement with the U.S. to build a joint missile defense system in the Eurasian region and on what its  parameters will be in case it is signed. Everything will become clearer by the year end. If no agreement is reached, the Russian interest in the Gabala radar will drop sharply. Currently, radar of Voronezh type is operational in Armavir, which allowed to refuse services of radar located on Ukrainian territory at Sevastopol and Mukachevo.

This radar is aimed mainly at the South-West. At the same time next to it a radar station is being built which would duplicate Gabala. Thus, Gabala, especially in light of lack of a coordinated strategy with the U.S. against missile defense in Europe, is not of strategic importance for Russia. In general, the strategy of the Russian leadership implies a  complete replacement of radars remaining from the Soviet Union in the former republics with more sophisticated ones located in Russia.

Some experts argue Turkey’s troops may be placed in Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan as a stabilizing factor. Is this real?

Placement of Turkish troops in the light of the strategic nature of Azerbaijani-Turkish partnership, backed by ethnic factors, should be considered as a priority version. Deployment of Turkish forces can aggravate situation in the region. Most likely, Turks will not do this since it would damage their image in the region as a stabilizing force, guaranteeing peace.

The Military Doctrine of Azerbaijan notes (among other things) existence of conflicts in the border states and placement of military bases in the immediate vicinity of the land and maritime borders of the republic as a threat to the country.

In your opinion, how far can Caspian littoral states’ increasing military groups in the Caspian Sea amid unresolved problems of the basin be considered destabilizing factor?

Such problem does exist. However, many players want it to be resolved finally. In particular, until division of the Caspian Sea bottom is resolved, Nabucco project backed by the U.S. and EU, will not be launched because Turkmenistan is the most real resource.


/Day.Az/