"Balanced relations with both Russia and US would best serve Azerbaijan's interests"

What are the risks of new tensions in conflict areas in the South Caucasus?

The Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict certainly has the potential to flare up again into military confrontation. However, I don’t see a great risk of this happening in the near future, because all major international - U.S., Russia, Europe and regional players - Iran, Turkey are against such  development. However, the unresolved issue of Nagorno-Karabakh and some lingering view that there is a military solution to the conflict keeps the risk of a new military conflagration alive.

What do you think about the current stage of relations between Azerbaijan and the United States?

Currently the U.S. sees Azerbaijan as a valuable asset to be used in the conduct of its policies toward Afghanistan and Iran. However, in the event of the end of the Afghan war or some kind of breakthrough in U.S. - Iran relations may be as a result of a regime change in Iran, Azerbaijan’s value for the U.S. would be diminished.

Should U.S. - Turkish relations worsen, which is unlikely but not impossible, U.S. - Azerbaijan relations may also suffer as some elements may use the Armenian card against Turkey. In general Azerbaijan as a small country in a strategically important region faces the same dilemmas as other similar countries have faced in their relations with the great powers. Great powers want to remain in good terms with all regional countries and use them for their own purposes and this often clashes with the interests of their actual or potential allies in different regions. A good example is the U.S. difficulty in keeping the alliance of Pakistan while wanting to develop a strategic alliance with India, or U.S. alliance with Israel on the one hand and moderate Arabs on the other.

During his last visit to Azerbaijan Robert Gates, U.S. Secretary of Defense said Hillary Clinton is expected to visit the country in the nearest future. What do you think should be expected from the US top officials’ visits here?

Nothing out of the ordinary. Secretary Clinton will reassure Azerbaijan of U.S. friendship, and no doubt she will ask for Azerbaijan’s continued cooperation with the U.S. policies vis a vis Iran.

Azerbaijan tries to develop good relations with Russia and at the same time cooperates actively with US. Anyway could there ever be any circumstance for Azerbaijan to make clear choice between the West and Russia?

Currently US-Russia relations are reasonably good, and I don’t see any return to the kind of animosity that existed between the two countries during the Soviet times. Therefore, for the time being Azerbaijan can continue having good relations with both Russia and the U.S. However, as long as Russia sees the Caucasus region as its sphere of influence and the U.S. wants to extend its influence their potential for U.S-Russia rivalry exists and therefore potentially could create some dilemmas for Azerbaijan. What is clear is that it would be against Azerbaijan’s national interest to antagonize Russia, excessively since Russia is in its close neighborhood. Balanced relations with both Russia and U.S. would best serve Azerbaijan’s interests.


/APA/