Russian political expert on Russia's role in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement

Prior to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Yerevan, Armenian media reported that Russian President is going to submit plan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution to his Armenian counterpart. According to the alleged plan, Armenia will free Azerbaijan’s occupied Agdam, Fuzuli and Kalbajar regions as a first step. In your opinion, how realistic is this?

I don’t know whether such a plan exists and how Azerbaijan will react to it. I can only say that this option is extremely beneficial for Russia. The main point is that lately Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has been making great efforts to increase his credibility within the country and abroad.

It is somewhat easier to realize foreign policy plans than domestic ones. It is extremely important for him regardless of whether he plans to run for president in 2012 or not. So, it is very important for Dmirty Medvedev to put significant influence on resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict also in terms of the domestic policy and because of strong Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia and Armenian diaspora and also because of reaction of the world community.

Russia does have an opportunity to put pressure on Armenia since the country depends on Russia in all areas including in energy and security spheres.

One should take into consideration that Armenia will never agree to free even three regions on its own. They were captured illegally and contrary to international law. They are not recognized by any state. Armenia will not leave them easily. Armenia may want Azerbaijan to reject its right to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan will never accept an agreement on liberation of three regions at an initial stage since Baku will never agree to give up the remaining regions and Nagorno-Karabakh at least due to the fact that Azerbaijan’s plight is much better today to make any concessions.

There is internal political stability in Azerbaijan. It has faster economic development rates than Armenia and even Russia. As a strong state, Azerbaijan will never make territorial concessions. It means that one such an agreement exists, Armenia will certainly receive some economic preferences from Russia instead.

Armenia may also ask opening of the border with Turkey as a response step…

This is possible. But it involves a number of other issues, such as recognition of "genocide". Moreover, if the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia takes place with Turkey's involvement, it will increase Ankara’s role in this conflict and the region as a whole, which, in turn, does not meet Russia’s interests.

Moscow tries to show that Ankara is its partner and even a friend, but we must remember that Turkey has become strong, independent and ambitious player in the region over the past years. And I am sure that if Russia succeeds to offer an agreement that will satisfy both parties, it will play the key role in the region. If Russia offers to deploy peacekeeping forces in the liberated areas in particular the U.S. peacekeepers in one of the Azerbaijani regions bordering with Iran, it means that it fully changes its position in the Middle East. After all, this decision means that Russia send a message to Iran, and that it becomes a very important strategic partner of the United States in the Caucasus. I think that Russia is not ready to make such a move.


/Day.Az/