Azerbaijani analyst: Armenia faces tough financial situation

Head of the Armenian Diaspora of France said at a recent meeting with the Armenian Defense Minister that the problems of the Armenian army will be in focus of the diaspora who intends to assist the army. In your opinion, what kind of help did he mean?

I think that these statements are mostly propaganda than real. The diaspora rendered real help to the Armenian army only at the initial stage of the Karabakh war, when the Soviet Union was collapsing and the Armenian did not have enough money. But today the Armenian army has long been maintained by the state budget. That's why these statements are rather of propaganda nature.

Army needs more money, and the diaspora reduces money transfers to Armenia from year to year. This is a source of discontent in Armenian society. Different parts of the Armenian diaspora has long said that Armenia should settle the Karabakh problem, reach agreement with Azerbaijan and solve problems with Turkey. These statements should rather be considered a kind of response to statements made in Baku.

In his latest visit to Russia, Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan has failed to persuade Russia to grant loan for Armenia to build a railway till Iranian border. Instead, he was given a cold reception and was asked about the previously borrowed $500 million loan…

Armenia is indeed in a very difficult financial and economic situation. The situation worsened after August 2008, when the only road through Georgia was closed. Armenia has suffered heavy losses. And today the only way out for Armenia to foreign markets lies through Iran.  

In the meantime, Russia has begun to act much more pragmatic as of late. It has drawn a lesson  from numerous events in post-Soviet space when it was handing out money and loans in large amounts and got nothing in response. No one can guarantee that Armenia will not see power change and a different situation in future. That is why Russia's position in this case is pragmatic in all respects.

The European Parliament has urged Armenia to withdraw troops from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. May the European Parliament adopt political or economic sanctions against Armenia in future?

No, there will be no sanctions. The European Parliament decisions are declarative in nature and are not binding. Thus, there is no need to hope that this resolution will be followed by a specific real action on the part of Armenia or the European structures. This resolution can be called pure propaganda victory for Azerbaijan, but no more. This is another gain in a big propaganda war with Armenia.

At a meeting with NATO Secretary-General in Brussels, Armenian President, referring to suspension of the Turkish-Armenian dialogue, said that "Turkey has wasted its reserve credibility as a partner in negotiations." Did this statement make prospects of resumption of dialogue even more remote?

I disagree with this view. We like Armenia have very high expectations from these meetings. In fact, many in Armenia and Azerbaijan do not realize that Turkey and Armenia have started a process. We often misunderstand the word "process" is. It is about the same with the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution that started almost in 1992 when the OSCE Minsk Group was created. Though it is already 2010, the process has not ended, the Karabakh negotiations are still underway and we do not know how many years or decades they will last.

This is a process. The same is taking place in the Armenian-Turkish process which have seen many allegations and statements from the parties. I disagree with those who bury the process. This will not happen. I think it will just take a long time. Both Armenia and Turkey want to tackle all problems between themselves and also squeeze maximum benefit for themselves. That is it. Therefore,  they do not hurry with this process. The process has begun, and it is unstoppable.


/Day.Az/