"American methods and schemes simply don't work in South Caucasus"

Interview with Director-General of the Information and Analytical Center for Study of the Social and Political Processes in post-Soviet area at the Moscow State University (MSU) named after Lomonosov, vice-dean of the History faculty of the MSU, editor-in-chief of information-analytical portal "Bulletin of the Caucasus" Alexei Vlasov.

What are the key points of change of the geopolitical agenda in the South Caucasus after the failure of Turkish-Armenian process and establishing close partnerships between Russia and Turkey?

Failure of the Armenian-Turkish negotiations is not a deadlock in the Armenian-Turkish relations, it is the failure of American policy to impose a certain unreasonable scenario for region without taking into account the interests of direct participants. Sooner or later the Armenian-Turkish dialogue will be resumed, as well as the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh will be resolved. And Americans will no longer act as the sole moderator of this process, since it is obvious that those methods and schemes that they use in their policy in the South Caucasus don't work. And that means we need different moderators and players which can contribute to processes.

Against this background, Russia has an excellent opportunity to offer its agenda, and, as a result of the meeting of Turkish and Russian leadership, it will not single-handedly formed agenda, and attempt to make a certain consensus of interest taking into account Ankara. This means that the axis of Russia-Turkey in the near future will be a important factor determining the position of external forces in the South Caucasus.

How such kind of interaction can help in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Of course, the key to resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is Baku and Yerevan. But if foreign arbitrators have a strong will to act as honest broker in resolving this conflict, if there is a guarantee that nobody will play a double game, then there is hope that sooner or later the sides will clearly understand that the solution is possible only through taking into account the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and compromises from both sides.

How do you consider the prospect of cooperation between Georgian opposition leaders and the Kremlin, given the constant interaction of Georgian several opposition leaders with Russia?

Nogaideli and Nino Burjanadze act like politicians, trying to diversify foreign policy.

If Nogaideli is not the most serious pretender for future leadership, but Burjanadze is known as a strong politician for a long time who has the support on Capitol Hill and strong political background. Now she decided to enlist the support of the Kremlin by getting bonuses and positioning herself as the leader of the moderate opposition.

It is impossible to reproach her in sale of national interests. So Burjanadze thinks that when the constitutional term of President Saakashvili will be over, there will be no worthy pretender for the leadership in his entourage. Here the mechanisms which she systematically accumulates will work. She will be perceived sufficiently in the Kremlin and Washington.

However, she ignores the fact that Saakashvili, as a person who can not exist without power, will not leave his post. When charismatic politician Saakashvili resists Burjanadze's intelligent policy, the crowd will choose Saakashvili. So, Saakashvili has all the chances, with the support of people, to change the constitution, looking for ways to stay in power and keep all the levers in his hands.

How do you consider the prospect of developments in Kyrgyzstan, given the continuing riots and confrontation between the north and south of the country?

Judging by Russian Special Representative in Kyrgyzstan Vladimir Rushailo's visit to Kyrgyzstan, external forces, including the Collective Security Treaty Organization, as an instrument for maintaining order and stability, will be involved to stabilize the situation in the republic.

The current leadership of the country is unable to overcome the split within the Kyrgyz Republic between north and south. Each week the possibility of civil war and a split of the state is increasing. It is impossible to restore stability before holding elections without the support of Russia and Kazakhstan. The best institute for this is the CSTO. The United States understand that the alternative to CSTO's intervention is chaos and civil war, but given the fact that there is U.S military base in Kyrgyzstan, Washington does not want to risk the safety of its people on its territory. So, perhaps participation of Russia and Kazakhstan will be welcomed by the U.S.


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