Interview with Russian political expert Vitaly Dimarski.
In your opinion, what issues are likely to top agenda of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s talks in Turkey?I think that main issues to be discussed at meetings between President Dmitry Medvedev and the Turkish leadership will be implementing projects of gas pipelines, including the "South Stream" and restoring the Turkish-Armenian relations. Turkey is an important geopolitical player in the south of Russia. This is a transit country with its interests in the South Caucasus region, where much depends on Ankara’s position.
Russia attaches special importance to normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations. As is known, these relations are not very easy. On the one hand, there was a sharp convergence, but then the process was suspended, because Turkey put a new condition regarding the settlement of the Karabakh conflict which is absolutely unacceptable for the Armenian side. I think that the Russia President cannot bypass this issue because Russia is one of the mediator countries which must somehow provide a solution to this conflict.
I cannot say that Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be resolved in near future. It seems that this process takes place with “ebbs” and “flows”. That the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan meet on neutral territory promises some progress. Later everything reaches complete standstill. As far as I know, the process has stalled as of now. Moreover, the Karabakh problem prevails in relations between Turkey and Armenia. Of course, President Medvedev will talk about it with his Turkish interlocutors. I think Russia is interested in resumed rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey. Medvedev will try to have an impact on the Turkish side in order to remove the additional conditions that have been made lately.
Turkey-Armenia relations experience another problem, that is, Yerevan’s striving for “genocide” recognition. May Moscow influence Armenian leadership to give up ‘genocide” claims?Russia is unlikely to do so. A compromise is possible in this regard: Armenia softens stance in response to softening of Turkey’s stance. Armenia will never refuse the "genocide” recognition policy. Any Armenian politician who will do it will issue himself a death sentence in a political sense. Although, who knows. Formally, Armenia will not abandon this requirement. It may advance this requirement less and less if the Turkish side makes concessions. I do not think that Russia has a strong influence on Armenia in this regard. Russian politicians understand that this question is fundamental for the Armenian people.
In your opinion, is Russia interested in resolving Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?Russia is interested in ensuring stability in the South Caucasus region. Moreover, Russia is one of the mediator countries in the Karabakh conflict. As a mediator, Russia can help to ensure that the parties compromise. A year ago in Prague, I spoke with an American mediator, and back then all of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, including Russian co-chair, were optimistic. They all said that something will be resolved very soon.
Will resumed relations with Turkey reduce Armenia’s significance for Armenia? After all, Armenia's leaders make no secret that they need Russia to protect them against Turkey ...Russia and Turkey are competitors in the Caucasus region to some extent. But Turkey will not be able to oust Russia from the South Caucasus. It will fail because Russia cannot simply leave the region. Moscow has its own interests in the region. Part of the Caucasus region is Russia’s territory and much is interconnected in this regard. Besides North Caucasus, Russia has very weak link in the region - broken relations with Georgia. I do not think that Russia can afford to harm relations with someone in the region.
It is impossible to squeeze Russia out of the region. But Turkey may try to reduce its influence in the South Caucasus. From this point of view, if we can relieve the tension between Turkey and Armenia, it will give a chance to Yerevan for a more multi-vector policy.
Now Armenia has nowhere to go, since its borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey are closed with the only help coming from Russia. It is possible that the way out of the enclave, which Armenia has ended up, will reduce Russian influence on Armenia and, accordingly, on the Caucasus region. But this, as the saying goes, "is written with pitchforks on the water.” In this way, there is a very big problem like Karabakh conflict and the Armenian-Turkish relations.
In the meantime, Russia remains a major strategic player in the Caucasus region. The fact is that Russia is an important economic partner not only for Armenia, but also for Azerbaijan. But with the "South Stream” project, it became an important economic player in the southern Europe.
Can Moscow urge Turkey to abandon preconditions in terms of normalizing relations with Armenia in exchange for laying the "South Stream” pipeline through Turkish territory?I think that every problem in the region can only be solved in conjunction with other problems. Many factors impact on what you refuse or agree. These are the Azerbaijani-Turkish and Turkish-Armenian relations and interests of other countries although there is no special contradiction between Russia and the U.S. This is a fairly complicated process, and I would not consider one issue in isolation from others.
It should be noted that Turkey did not initially put forward the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as a condition for normalizing relations with Armenia. When the Turkish leaders visited Yerevan, there were no conditions on the Karabakh conflict. Only after pressure from Azerbaijan, the Karabakh conflict began to figure in the Armenian-Turkish talks.
Everything is not so straightforward in dealing with such issues: we give you the "South Stream" and you refuse Nagorno-Karabakh. This diplomatic trade involves not only two goods. The negotiations may have different options. For example, the condition may exist only on paper, or the requirement is not removed, but they do not insist on compliance. In any case, just such issues are not resolved.
/Day.Az/