Azerbaijani expert: Serzh Sargsyan does not control the situation

As of late, the Armenian diaspora has stepped up efforts to push “Armenian genocide” bills through the parliaments worldwide. In your opinion, may the diaspora achieve this?

The diaspora has stepped up efforts as it wants to show Yerevan its importance and capacity. In order not to lose its influence within Armenia, diaspora offers its services to obscure the issue of liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani lands.

Moreover, Armenians show high activity in a attempt to gain support of international community and thus demonstrate to neighbors that a number of states support Armenia in its withdrawal from the isolation and in the so-called "genocide".

In this regard, political idealism of the Armenian leaders prevails over pragmatism. After all, our neighbors need real action to end this isolation.

Three so-called subjects are involved in all processes related to the so-called Armenian issue. These are Armenia itself, Karabakh separatists and the diaspora. When it is time to take drastic decisions, they will start sorting out relationships and blackmail each-other. The reason is that they intend to share benefits of these solutions.

There is a real chaos among current players. This cannot but be a matter of concern, since the lack of true unity among them hinders important processes.

Unfortunately, in this situation Sargsyan does not show principled position, because he does not control the situation. He follows the tastes of others. Therefore, the Diaspora mobilizes resources to demonstrate its influence to Yerevan and make it clear for Sargsyan that he must reckon with it.

This whole mess is not in favor of the peace process and places a heavy burden on the entire region.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will trip to Turkey on May 11. In your opinion, what issues will top agenda of talks in Turkey?

I think the agenda will cover energy projects, because Turkey and Russia have carefully co-ordinated the "South Stream" project and agreed on possible new transits. Regional problems, issues of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenian-Turkish relations will also be discussed.

But Russia is not very interested in reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey, because it is not going to lose its dominant position over Yerevan. So, I do not rule out that regional conflicts will be discussed in the usual sluggish mode.

In addition, there is another important issue related to the future of the Black Sea basin. Neither Russia nor Turkey want the status quo to change as it has an advantage for fleets of these countries in the water area. The two countries will coordinate approaches to ensure that under no circumstances naval compounds of powerful nations enter this area.

In your view, how this visit may impact the Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement?

I do not think there is particular progress in this issue. Though in recent years the Americans have been too active in the Turkish-Armenian format, Russia’s task is to delay the reconciliation.

In principle, Russia is not so prone to ensure that the two countries make peace. Once Armenian-Turkish border is opened, America will strengthen foothold in Armenia. Secondly, pro-Western forces in Armenia will become active. Russia will by all means try so that the Turkish-Armenian border remains closed.

With regard to settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, if the current Turkish government is really interested in addressing this problem, Ankara and Moscow have prerequisites for the effective cooperation in this matter. Together, they will be able to make the Armenian side to start moving in the direction of the Madrid principles.

How do you comment on Iran's peacemaking initiatives in the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Iran has demonstrated its activity many times trying to secure political gains on the foreign policy front. Besides, it does not want to have tensions along its northern borders. But it seems to me that Iran needs to reconsider its relations with Armenia to ensure success of the initiative and win Azerbaijan’s trust.

Iran should have put pressure on Armenia long time ago. But it has not done it yet, because the West encouraged Iran to help Armenia. This theme, incidentally, has consistently existed in the format of those agreements that Iranians and Western politicians have exchanged.

As to the future of this initiative, I think, there is little reason for optimism. Neither the West nor Russia would agree to see the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to be settled without their participation. They will not allow it happen because failure of the OSCE Minsk Group to mediate will be a reverse side of the coin.


/Day.Az/