Russian expert: Opening the border with Armenia is not important for Turkey

In your opinion, why U.S. President Barack Obama did not utter the word “genocide” once again in his annual address to the Armenian Diaspora in connection with the 1915 events in the Ottoman Empire?

It would be unreasonable for the U.S to uniquely recognize the "Armenian genocide" because it will affect relations with Turkey and the situation around Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, etc. Obama and his entourage naturally weighed all the pros and cons, and factors "against" against saying this word appeared even more. As a result, on one hand, he did not utter the word "genocide", but did make mention of those events so that later he will not be blamed for ignoring this problem.

How will the U.S.-Turkish relations develop from now on?

Nothing radical will happen. As to the U.S.-Turkish relations, there are many hidden dangers. The policy of the current Turkish government does not always meet U.S. interests. This, of course, causes some complications in the relations between Turkey and the U.S., but some major crisis s is unlikely to emerge.

Regarding U.S. relations with Armenia, they are much less important for the United States than the relations with Turkey. I see no radical changes here as well.

May all these developments have any impact on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?

Judging from the events that we have witnessed in recent times, I do not foresee changes in terms of settlement of the Karabakh conflict. I mean, the recognition or non-recognition of "genocide" will not influence the settlement process. The Karabakh conflict is currently frozen, and in order to get things rolling, world politics or those countries which have direct relevance to the conflict need to experience major political events.

A couple of days ago Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan announced that his country suspends ratification of the Armenia-Turkey protocols...

Actually, Armenia is the only one who will lose of this, because it is more interested in normalizing relations with Turkey, and, above all, in economic terms. Opening the border with Armenia is not important for Turkey. Moreover, this country is very sensitive to the events of 1915.

So, there is no need to expect any changes in the Armenia-Turkey relations in near future?

To be honest, I initially did not believe that some progress is possible in these relations. There are fundamental differences and the border is unlikely to reopen until they are resolved.

And how will Russia behave in current situation?

Russia is interested in preserving the status quo. Let me explain. On one hand, it is necessary to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, improve relations with Turkey and maintain strong relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, on the other hand, it needs to be very careful, because a slight move in one direction or another can change the balance of forces. In other words, Russia will now develop relations with Turkey with utmost care so as not to spoil relations with Armenia and to preserve very important partnership with Azerbaijan.


/Day.Az/