Russian MP reveals the real "nightmare for Yerevan"

Turkish and Armenian leaders recently held talks in Washington which showed the world that the parties are not willing to take concrete steps to open the borders and restore diplomatic relations...

It seems that process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations is obviously underway. This is due to the situation that changed in wake of the war in South Ossetia. This war demonstrated Armenia that it should have some alterative options, otherwise it may end up in isolation.

Secondly, this is due to the fact that Turkish foreign policy is gradually evolving. It is looking for new approaches. It is also trying to expand space for political maneuvering. On the other hand, there is obvious interest and they are moving in this direction.

In your opinion, in what state is the Armenian-Azerbaijani process at the moment?

The Armenian-Azerbaijani relations are not in cold, but in frozen state. The negotiating process has some glimmer of life. This is very good. But at the same time there are no movements. I believe there will be moves sooner or later. There is surely a change of power in these relationships. There is a fairly fast economic growth in Azerbaijan. The country is strengthening its political, economic and social institutions. It is obvious that Azerbaijan is assuming the role of the first power in the South Caucasus.

This will necessarily lead to advances in the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. It is not clear what kind advances there will be. These shifts can result in a peace treaty. They can result in a new military conflict in which different forces can win. But the point is that these changes in the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations have not happened yet. The potential for change is already accumulating.

To make it clear, the Azerbaijani-Armenian process is very different from the Turkish-Greek and Turkish-Cypriot relations over the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. There is a huge difference. There is an obvious potential for change between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

As you know, Turkey links ratification of the protocols with Armenia with the initial withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied Azerbaijani lands...

Turkey seeks to simultaneously improve relations with Armenia and do not degrade ties with Azerbaijan. At the same time it seems to me that this requirement for withdrawal of Armenian troops may ultimately be advanced not so harshly.

What would happen if Barack Obama labels events of 1915 as "Armenian genocide” on April 24? Will it ruin the negotiations between Ankara and Yerevan and Baku and Yerevan?

I do not think so. Obama's recognition of 1915 events as "genocide", of course, will not undermine the negotiation process. It will play the role of a certain factor that would modify the situation, but not break down the negotiations. But if Obama utters the word "Armenian genocide", this will seriously deteriorate the Turkish-American relations. The consequences of such degradation are diverse, and they are difficult to name.

How would you rate Armenia’s current situation in all these processes? In your opinion, what does Armenia need to do at the moment?

I think it would be reasonable for Yerevan not to delay the resolution of these issues with its neighbors and to try to solve them now in some way since the time is running in favor of Azerbaijan to some extent. Because Azerbaijan’s economic growth rates are higher than those of Armenia. When instability emerges, more vigor and efficiency from both sides plays a role. And when there is stability in both sides, resource begin to play a role. And in terms of resources, Azerbaijan is more powerful than Armenia. So, I think time is running against Armenia.

Though, on the other hand, Armenia is trying to protect itself from adverse developments while building relations with Turkey. I think a nightmare for Yerevan is to see Azerbaijani army in cooperation with the Turkish officers, retirees and Turkish experts to enter the territory of Karabakh and Armenia. Preventing this nightmare by improving relations with Turkey is one of Armenia’s goals.


/Day.Az/