Azerbaijani analyst: Armenia will "jump" if its told to "jump"

What is your assessment of the Erdogan-Sargsyan meeting that took place in Washington a couple of days ago?

Statements by the parties made after the meeting give reason to say that the talks reached no progress. The most that Turkey and Armenia could reach is that both sides expressed readiness to further continue their dialogue.

Erdogan, before and after the meeting in the U.S., repeatedly stated that Turkey is not going to open its borders with Armenia until it withdraws from the Azerbaijani territories. For Azerbaijan, this is a very positive factor, which should bring Ankara and Baku together even more.

Earlier, our relationship was based only on personal friendship between the two leaders, and economic relations between the states did not give grounds to assert that we are strategic partners. Now we have a solid ground for establishing strategic partnership.

Another positive outcome of Erdogan’s U.S. visit is that Barack Obama made it clear that he will not utter the word "Armenian genocide". Turkish diplomacy has shown its maturity and was able to convince the U.S. that the Turkish-American relations are much more important than all the other subjective factors. In any case, Erdogan made it clear that he is not afraid of possible recognition of "genocide" by the U.S. because he does not consider such moves to be competent.

In your opinion, in what issues Washington will ask Ankara to help in exchange for refusal to recognize “Armenian genocide”?

Everything is pretty obvious here. Turkey’s credibility has been increasing rapidly in the region and the world lately. So, Washington cannot ignore Ankara. Turkey is working hard in Afghanistan and Iraq, and also may be chief mediator in relations with Iran. Ankara has much influence in the Middle East and Caucasus as well. I think that the White House will ask Turkey to help on all issues related to these countries.

In your view, with whom Armenian lobby in the U.S. Congress can ally when considering the "Armenian genocide" bill?

I think that the Armenian lobby has no help any more. This issue has been considered by administrations of President Bush, Bill Clinton and now that of Obama. But the bill was never enacted because the White House has always understood that Turkey is much more important than a handful of Armenians living in the United States. If necessary, the White House could simply eliminate institute of lobbying, and thus to silence anyone.

Do you really believe that the U.S. can overnight eliminate an institute lobbying existing for more than a century?

The U.S. adopted Jackson-Vanik amendments and also amendments to the Section 907 overnight. Washington can take such decisions quickly without delay. The Armenian lobby has not yet hindered the White House to a large extent. On the contrary, the authority uses them to intimidate Ankara, although Erdogan has hinted that he does not care what decisions U.S. Congress can taken against Turkey. The U.S. cannot deal with Iran because it is strong and self-sufficient country. Turkey is not weaker than Iran.

If the Armenia lobby in the U.S. is not so strong, then why the U.S. Congress Committee adopted a bill recognizing the “Armenian genocide”?

The decision, taken with a margin of only one vote, once again shows that influence of the lobby should not be exaggerated. If the bill were adopted with a margin of at least 10 votes, it could be said that Armenians have a strong influence on the U.S. Congress. But this fact once again demonstrated weakness of the Armenian lobby. Someone "stamped" in the White House, and this lobby immediately kept silent.

Experienced former Congressman Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton know all the "ins and outs" in the American legislature, so it is always easy for them to balance it.

Armenian President meets with diaspora members and makes some sort of report to them during almost all his trips. The president did the same during his recent U.S. trip. In what degree does the Armenia Diaspora shape Armenia’s foreign policy?

I think that the words Sargsyan addressed to the Armenian Diaspora can be translated roughly as "Gentlemen, who can feed a hungry Armenia?” Yerevan cannot control the Armenian diaspora, as it receives millions of dollars from it which is enough to live from hand to mouth. Because “Armenia will jump if its told to jump.” If Sargsyan behaves well, perhaps the Diaspora will continue to provide financial support.


/Day.Az/