Azerbaijani expert: Turkey-Armenia protocols will "perish" soon

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet in Washington on April 12. In your opinion, what issues will top agenda of the meeting? What outcome it will have?

The agenda of the meeting is obvious. The parties will discuss the situation prevailing around the ratification of the Zurich protocols as well as the increased discussions on the "Armenian genocide" in the world.

I think we can predict that Armenia will get even more difficult situation in medium term. In a longer term it will be Turkey who will face hardships. Both the EU and the U.S put pressure on Ankara in the Armenian and Cyprus issues. I think Turkey’s leadership will have to take more decisive steps in this regard in near future.

The U.S. has reiterated on many occasions that it does not link the Armenian-Turkish normalization with settlement of the Karabakh problem. In your opinion, to what degree such an approach to disputable issues is detrimental for Azerbaijan?

The U.S. is well aware of the core of Armenia’s problems - relationship with Turkey, the conflict with Azerbaijan, problems in the economy, as well as issues of human rights and democracy. For the U.S. the first two problems are more important and it is attempting to address them, because America plans to use Armenia in the Iranian issue and relations with Russia, which are more important matters for Washington.

No doubt, not linking ratification of the Zurich protocols and settlement of the Karabakh conflict with each other is detrimental for Baku. Advances in the Armenian-Turkish negotiations will reduce pressure on Armenia in the Karabakh conflict settlement.
 
It can be judged from the statements that you are quite skeptical on a possible rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia. How do you see the fate of protocols in the near future?

I think that Zurich protocols will “perish” soon. Increased efforts by the Armenian lobby to raise the issue of "Armenian genocide" shows that the relations between Ankara and Yerevan can be even worse than at the time of launch of "football diplomacy". This year, Armenians are preparing for the 95th anniversary of "genocide". After several years they will mark "landmark" 100th anniversary. Therefore, the Armenian lobby will put even more pressure on Turkey. I think this will lead to the fact that the Armenian-Turkish protocols will be canceled in two years at most. Moreover, the escalation of the situation may lead to start of military conflict between the countries.

It is hard to say whether Armenia or Turkey will first annul the protocols, because both countries can do this.

Lately, more and more countries and international organizations offer mediation in the Karabakh issue. I your opinion, is mediation  alternative to the OSCE Minsk Group advantageous for Azerbaijan?

I think so. Azerbaijan must use all platforms to solve the Karabakh issue. With regard to mediation initiatives from abroad, I believe that the EU and Iran are especially active in this respect.

The EU will try to move the conflict through enhanced contacts in the negotiation process between the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities of Karabakh.

As to Iran, if it really wants to be an impartial mediator, either way it will have to spoil its relations with Yerevan. It might be an interesting situation. Armenia has repeatedly said that it recognizes only the OSCE Minsk as a mediator, which makes Iran’s initiative futile. In this case, if Yerevan "hurts" Tehran, Iran might take revenge and even grant its territory to the Azerbaijani army in the war with Armenia. It's no secret that major military units of our enemy is concentrated in the Karabakh area. Yerevan will be taken back by a strike from Iran and Armenian army will be defeated quickly.


/Day.Az/