Azerbaijani conflict scientist: Armenia is preparing for war

How would you characterize the position of Yerevan which has, in fact, rejected the updated version of the Madrid principles?  

I believe that the situation is simple - Azerbaijan accepted the updated principles to resolve the Karabakh conflict while Armenia did not. Recently, the co-chairs met with the Armenian side, but stated nothing significant on the outcome of the negotiations and went home. They have not briefed even the Azerbaijani side on outcome of their meetings.

To tell the truth, Yerevan drags out the negotiating process, making some vague statements and claiming that Armenia also accepted the Madrid Principles as a basis two years ago. But today the main point is not the document submitted to the parties in the Spanish capital in 2007, but renewed version of the Madrid principles. Azerbaijan has recently accepted them as a peace plan and as a basis for further negotiations.

Therefore, there is unprecedented campaign waged in Armenia against Azerbaijan. Their media claim that Azerbaijan is preparing for war. This is completely untrue, at least for the reason that Azerbaijan has publicly announced that it accepts the updated Madrid principles as a blueprint for a peaceful settlement of the conflict, in other words, for a large peace treaty.

It is rather Armenia who is preparing for war. I can see it clearly, watching the Armenian TV, reading their newspapers, which highlight remarks by their current and former military leaders, political figures from the government and parliament.

What Armenia is seeking to do by distracting the world attention from its failure to accept the updated Madrid principles?

This document clearly states that Armenia must  withdraw its troops from at least five regions, that determining the status of Nagorno Karabakh is postponed to a distant time, and that even the outlines of the future status is currently not clear, because the parties have not yet agreed on the agenda of the referendum.

Armenia does not like all that and that is why it insists that the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is defined beforehand. However, the OSCE Minsk Group developed a different plan, under which, above all, the Armenian troops should leave Azerbaijan’s regions and then gradually the conflicting parties must negotiate to reach a decision on the status. This is the main obstacle preventing Armenia from accepting the Madrid principles.

On the other hand, Armenia’s current position can be described almost as refusing the negotiations. Because 18 years of negotiations under the auspices of the OSCE have shown that this conflict should be solved step by step, because the parties have reached such a depth, when it is necessary first to solve all issues related to the occupation, and then to resolve the issue of status on the basis of peace, trust and democratic principles.

But Armenia does not want to withdraw its army from the occupied territories delaying the process in every way. Now they are pinning hopes on the process of normalizing relations with Turkey, giving priority to this. They think that after establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey, Armenia will get strong again and dictate its terms in negotiations, will depart from the current peace plan, which they see as unacceptable.

What can revive the Armenia- Azerbaijan talks that have stalled abruptly? Does the OSCE MG have a leverage to do this?

In recent years, the mediators have stated that they have no another alternative plan and they have done their best – they have submitted the Madrid principles to the parties. In their view, it is very stable and potentially quite working plan. In its turn, Azerbaijan accepted them, but Armenia does not. I think that the co-chair countries, Azerbaijan and Turkey, who is also member of the OSCE Minsk Group, must insist on this peace plan. If Armenia does not accept this, other measures including sanctions and even use force for peace should be taken against it. It is usually case with all international conflicts when one of the parties does not accept the peace plan.

What do you expect from the process of Armenia-Turkey rapprochement? In your opinion, when will the protocols be ratified and the borders will be reopened?

I think that Turkey will keep its promise. Prime Minister Erdogan has promised the Azerbaijani people that Turkey will not open its borders and establish diplomatic relations with Armenia, while Azerbaijan’s lands are under occupation. This has already become a domestic issue of Turkey for the first time in 20 years. Therefore, no Turkish government can act against the will of the Turkish society.

I think that the Armenian-Turkish protocols are still in force. But Erdogan, I think, during talks in Washington will reiterate that Turkey is ready to ratify the accords signed with Armenia if only Armenia withdraws troops from Azerbaijani lands.

Do you mean there are no doubts that the border between Armenia and Turkey will not reopen till Armenia’s occupier forces leave Azerbaijani lands?

I think, Erdogan will not do it. First, he does not want it to happen. Secondly, he knows the internal situation in Turkey and Azerbaijan. The Turkish political leadership has explicitly indicated that it will not ratify the protocols with Armenia until Azerbaijani territories are liberated.


/Day.Az/