Stratfor: US is in a tough spot when it comes to keeping Russia contained in Caucasus

The resolution that passed the House Foreign Relations Committee was designed by a handful of Congressmen [Representatives Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), George Radanovich (R-Calif.), and Congressional Armenian Caucus co-chairs Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill)] and Senators [Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and John Ensign (R-Nev.).

The Senators and Congressmen did consult the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) on the draft.

It was not prepared by the White House, who is against the vote taking place in Congress, knowing it will harm current relations with Turkey. Also, this is simply a non-binding resolution that will be voted on by Congress in May, STRATFOR global intelligence company said in a report.

There are forces in the US government—mainly the handful of Senators and Congressmen—who are using this resolution as an excuse to put pressure on Turkey for a number of things: the Armenian protocols, strengthening relations with Russia and to keep Ankara in line in negotiations over Iran and Afghanistan. But the White House knows this is not the way to go about applying such pressure and wants to try to block the vote actually going to Congress in May.

Turkey’s response has been more symbolic than anything. It has recalled its ambassador to the US and is rumored to be re-thinking a few economic deals with the US. But Ankara has not done much else. There has been the belief that this resolution will kill the protocols between Ankara and Yerevan, however, STRATFOR had seen no sign that the protocols were going to pass Turkish parliament anyway. Any tie between the resolution and the protocols is then

Azerbaijan’s place in this situation is an interesting one, especially the US view of Baku’s support for Ankara. It is a mixed bag of responses to Azerbaijan.

On the one hand, the US is annoyed that Baku is supporting the delay on the protocols ratification between Ankara and Yerevan. But on the other hand, Washington wants Turkey and Azerbaijan to re-form their ties which have been broken since Armenia and Turkey started their talk of the protocols.

Turkey is the US’s best response to a resurging Russia in the Caucasus, so having Baku and Ankara on the same page is key, even if it means sacrificing any progress with Armenia. The US is in a tough spot when it comes to keeping Russia contained in the Caucasus.


/APA/