Russian expert: Only a military solution to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be speedy

How do you assess the negotiations held to settle the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

The best news for today is that meetings are held at a high level and the parties communicate trying to solve the problem. We are witnessing something that has not been for several years. Though no specific arrangements for Nagorno-Karabakh have been reached, negotiations are going on.

How can we interpret the statement by Sergei Lavrov, who noted that the parties prepare their ideas on controversial  items?

I believe, Armenia and Azerbaijan should make reasonable changes to the Madrid principles. After all, today there is an agreement neither on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, nor on time to determine it. However, it seems to me that the final solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not matter of today, but matter of decades.

In your opinion, how best the conflict can be resolved today?

I would advise to refrain from armed clashes, but at the same time increase the level of trust between the two countries to establish trade, economic, humanitarian and cultural relations. Later they can safely determine the status. History has witnessed such cases when problem got resolved on their own for several decades.

So, you see no speedy solution to the problem?

Only a military solution can be speedy, and if one side is much superior to the other and delivers crushing blows to it one after another. However, I believe that war is not the best solution. One needs to be patient, to raise trust of the parties.

Do you believe Moscow really wants to address the problems or it pursues its own interests in this matter?

The conflict began to flare up in the late 1980s early 1990s. And if you compare those times with present times, we can identify three major differences. First, the role and influence of the U.S. in the world has very much weakened. The crisis is not the last reason behind it. As a result, the States have lost an opportunity to dictate its terms to all. Today, the Obama administration is spending more effort on building relations with India, China, but not Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Secondly, Russia has gained a remarkable strength both economically and politically. Finally, the world now views this region only from economic standpoint. Both the U.S. and Turkey and all the rest, by and large, are concerned only over an economic component. The South Caucasus is a transit area for world's energy resources.

Do you mean Russia primarily pursues its own economic interests taking advantage of the current weakness of the U.S.?

You can say so.

What, in your opinion, Moscow can do in an event of renewed hostilities between the conflicting parties?

Frankly, I cannot say exactly what Moscow would do once Azerbaijan launches military operation to liberate Nagorno-Karabakh. I just know for sure that war is contrary to interests of Moscow, Washington and NATO. Moreover, the Azerbaijani leadership is quite pragmatic.

What is Turkey’s role in recent events in the South Caucasus. In your opinion, what will be the next scenario of events on opening of the Armenian-Turkish border?

Turkey clearly plays an important role in the South Caucasus region both in terms of economic and military power. However today it primarily pursues its own goals - to become part of the EU. Non-recognition of "genocide" of Armenians impedes them. However, it is wrong to blame Turkey and the Turkish government for something that happened almost a century ago.

H. Hamidov
Day.Az