Azerbaijani political expert: Russia will take Azerbaijan's opinion into account in talks with Sargsyan

In your opinion, what is the chief goal of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s visit to Russia?

I think that there he will get detailed information about talks Erdogan held in Moscow. He will learn Russia’s final opinion. But I think that Moscow will hold talks with Sargsyan taking into account Azerbaijan’s opinion, because the past six months have seen some well-meaning moves between Russia and Azerbaijan which Moscow cannot ignore.  

What results can this visit have?

I believe immediately after Serzh Sargsyan’s visit to Moscow, one can expect a new impetus in the peace process with faster pace of settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations and Karabakh process keeping up with it.

How do you generally assess Turkish PM Erdogan’s Moscow trip?

This visit marks a new stage in development of Russian-Turkish relations. Now Turkey is almost Russia’s major economic partner. Turkey has become a leading power in the region. I think the Turkish-Russian rapprochement will contribute a significant deterrent element to the conflict zones which is so rich in our region.

In this context, as to the Karabakh issue, which is directly linked with the Armenian-Turkish normalization, Turkey has been sufficiently principled and consistent in its actions.

But it is well known that the principle of a blockade used by any country against the other ends sooner or later or yields no results.  

To be frank, unresolved Karabakh conflict and its linkage to the Turkish-Armenian relations impedes Turkey to implement its strategic plans. I mean its relations and strategy towards the European Union, and so on. Normalized relations with Armenia can untie Turkey’s hands.

It seems to me that in Moscow Erdogan received the same answer that he received in Washington and Paris. The leading powers share the same opinion. They are not inclined to link normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations with the Karabakh issue.

I do not think that Turkey will not be able to resist this view of the leading powers.

In your opinion, what will Turkey do in this case?

I believe that Turkey will eventually accept that, that is, will develop the negotiating process with Armenia or ratify the protocols. It has no other option.

I think that while speaking of a unified Azerbaijani-Turkish policy and partnership, one must not forget that there is also common Turkic interests. I think that everything should be reconsidered more seriously to reach some common compromise.

In my views, Turkey needs help to find compromise with Russia and western countries.

In your opinion, how will Turkey ratify the protocols? Is it possible to expect opening of Turkish-Armenian border until April 2010?

I do not think it will happen so quickly. Most likely, Turkey would prefer a gradual solution of this issue and will do so once there is favourable domestic political situation.

May Armenia finally agree with Turkey position and withdraw from the occupied Azerbaijani territories in return for the opening of the border?

I think it depends on the course of events. I think that the Western countries and Russia will have to demonstrate pragmatism and understanding of Azerbaijan’s position in order to help get rid of such problems.

N. Abdullayeva