Azerbaijani political expert: Serzh Sargsyan has very little time left

Armenia’s Constitutional Court Armenia has ruled the Armenian-Turkish protocols as conforming to country's Constitution. Do you think it indicates that the protocols will be ratified in the Armenian parliament?

From the very beginning, assessing the situation with ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, I never doubted that ratification is more advantageous for Armenia than for Turkey.

Despite all the gestures, statements made by some circles in the diaspora, the internal political processes, statements of opposition parties, it is advantageous  for Armenia to ratify these protocols.

Because it will help Armenia to open borders with Turkey and establish diplomatic relations with Turkey. In fact, Armenia opens door to the international arena and breaks isolation which it has experienced for many years.

Armenian Constitutional Court decided that the protocols meet the legal standards. There's nothing illegal about it. Another question is approval of the protocols by the parliament. The Armenian leadership will make a lot of effort to ensure that the protocols are ratified.

I think it will be a difficult procedure. Various contradictory processes will take place in the parliament. Several political parties of Armenia will use this to oppose the ruling political regime in the country and will accuse Serzh Sargsyan of a treason.

Does Armenian Constitutional Court’s endorsing the protocols mean that Armenia accepted Turkey’s  preconditions to withdraw from Azerbaijan’s lands so that its borders with Turkey will  reopen?

I think that this will not happen. Frankly speaking, Turkey has not put forward any preconditions to Armenia so far. Turkey argues that Azerbaijan’s interests should be taken into account and the occupied Azerbaijani territories must be liberated. Turkish PM Erdogan and FM Davutoglu have also reiterated this only after Turkey faced sharp condemnation from Azerbaijan over signing of the Zurich protocols.

That Erdogan made similar statements in Washington is also a positive step, but such declarative statements are only oral. However, the protocols make no mention of Azerbaijan’s interests. Therefore, if the situation develops in such a way, and if Azerbaijan’s interests are taken into account only at the level of oral declarations, Azerbaijan we may face the same situation it saw with the signing of the Zurich protocols.

It is important that all Turkish statements were effectively reflected in the process of ratification of the protocols in the country’s parliament.

How do you see further developments in Armenia? What further steps Armenian opposition may take?

I think that no special events will not occur in Armenia in near future. Opposition forces led by Ter-Petrosian will hold demonstrations on the streets.

But I think all this does not mean that Serzh Sargsyan’s position is seriously shaken, and he will step down soon.  He has not yet fulfilled its primary mission.

In your opinion, what is President Serzh Sargsyan’s primary mission?

His primary mission is to ensure that by signing the protocol and approving them in parliament, he will justify the hopes of external forces.

After he realizes their hopes in  the South Caucasus and performs the dirty work, Sargsyan would no longer be needed. Then he can be removed from the political scene.

It is no secret that Armenia is a controlled entity, but not an independent political unit. It is controlled by external forces. Influential circles in Russia and the United States are behind them.

I think that time is working against Sargsyan. In any case, the economic crisis in Armenia, which forces families to leave the country as in case of a family that fled the country to Azerbaijan few days ago, political instability that prevailed in Armenia and Karabakh clan, represented by Kocharyan and Sargsyan have set Armenian society’s teeth on edge. So, I think that Sargsyan and all of the Karabakh clan, which currently holds power in Armenia, have been left very few days on power.

In your opinion, what will be Turkey’s response step to the Armenian Constitutional Court’s move?

The situation is not so simple in Turkey either. Many in the Turkish parliament oppose ratification of the protocols. There are fairly strong pro-Azerbaijani forces in the country.

Position of Turkey’s political leadership has undergone certain changes. In other words, Turkey’s position completely changed in Zurich in October. Now the Turkish leadership evaluates these protocols quite differently. I think that even if they are approved by the Turkish Parliament, Azerbaijan resentment and backlash on signing of the protocols must be taken into account.   

I believe Turkish parliament will not ratify the protocols in detriment of Azerbaijan’s interests.

May Turkey be first to ratify the protocols first?

The fact is that it does not matter who will ratify the protocols first and who will do it second in this situation. It is important under what conditions they will be ratified.

But I think that Armenia is likely to ratify the first, because it is very advantageous for it.

N. Abdullayeva