Political analyst: These events mark transition of political struggle in Iran to a very dangerous stage

Iran’s opposition leader, former parliament speaker Mehdi Karroubi faced an assassination attempt recently. Does it indicate that the situation in Iran has reached extreme degree of tension?

I think that all protests and riots in Iran accompanied by the victims, as well as an attack on opposition leader, former parliament speaker Mehdi Karroubi mark transition of the political struggle in Iran to very dangerous, but a familiar stage. This stage covers series of different kinds of destabilizing activities including political killings. So, one should not get surprised at news of the latest provocations in Iran which are often instigated by both domestic and external forces.

In this connection, it will be appropriate to note that a new film shot by Iranian state television channel, part of which is available on the Internet, said that during  protests held in Iran on June 12,  27-year-old Neda Aga Soltan faked his own death. How do comment on it?

Story of Neda Aga Soltan, who is called symbol of Iranian resistance, could well be pure provocation. Another question is who is behind this provocation. I am confident that there is no a clear answer to this question. There are only different versions. I think this story is exclusively linked with peaceful and reformist movement in Iran. Too many forces, figures, trends are set in motion in this country. This  provocation indicates that Iranian authorities have lost control over situation in certain places.

What implications may the current situation in Iran have?

If the Iranian government fails to find an effective resolution to the political situation in the country, which I believe is talks with leaders of the Iranian opposition to reach mutually acceptable solution, we can expect tightening of the situation which is fraught with a high probability of various forms of civil war. At least, the Iranian revolution, which ended  up with overthrowing of the Shah, began about the same. And it's not so much in direct analogies, but rather in traditions set by the Iranian resistance.

Consequently, is Western media, who actively assert that the change of power in Iran is not far off, are right in their assumptions?

Unfortunately, reports of western media about Iran are noted for their bias, prejudice and distortion of reality. According to these reports, Iran is a country whose authorities have no development.

Whereas political design of the Iranian state undergoes major evolutionary processes that result in stronger political forces acceptable to the state.

All of them are supporters of Islamic development for Iran, but they are not representatives of mullahs. In the meantime, they do not consider the western model of democracy as example for future model of the Iranian state. Therefore, it is not necessary that forces that would suit the West will accede to power in case of the revolutionary developments.

What impact may events in Iran have on Azerbaijani-Iranian relations?

Azerbaijan watches the events in Iran very closely. It should be noted that Azerbaijan was able, despite certain difficulties, I mean Iranian nuclear program and the issue of the Caspian Sea, to maintain a high level of loyalty in relations with Iran. It was more difficult also because of Iran’s actively developing relations with Armenia which has occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s lands.

As to impact of ongoing developments in Iran on the Azerbaijani-Iranian relations, I should mention that, in my opinion, if liberal forces win elections in this country, Tehran will gradually depart from policy of confrontation with the West which will benefit Azerbaijani-Iranian relations because Azerbaijan also pursues a policy focused on European values.

In the case of strengthening of above-mentioned positions of political forces acceptable to the state in Iran, the prospects for improving the Azerbaijani-Iranian relations, in my opinion, does not give optimism.

A. Hasanov