Azer Mursaliyev: Year 2010 has real chance to see resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Can you say the year 2009 marked real progress in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

I think real progress did take place. However, special feature of the current settlement process is that a compromise is likely to be reached 99.99 percent, with the outstanding 0.01 percent of the conflict not being solved at all.

What does the very 0.01 percent imply?

This is the final resolution of the conflict. Whatever shifts may occur, the real resolution will come when we witness obvious steps. On the other hand, we have witnessed harsh statements about the resumption of the conflict many times. But this has been avoided so far which is probably a positive development.

Do you mean the conflicting sides have not moved towards real solution of the conflict?

You know, this is a situation where you can move indefinitely, with no final decision. It is just a movement.

If you were tasked to draw up rating of significant events that took place in our region in 2009, how would you arrange it?

I would probably put signing of the Turkey-Armenia protocols and events in Iran on the first or second places respectively. We have observed political crisis in Iran  for a long time and no one knows what it will end up with. I think, other events in the region are consequence of the two aforementioned for the most part.

I would also place certain cooling of the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, even the worst level of cooling of the Azerbaijani-Western relations, and on the contrary, improvement of the Azerbaijani-Russian relations in the ranking. These events enabled some experts to say that Azerbaijan has refocused its foreign policy vector. I believe the kind of warming in already good relations between Azerbaijan and Russia is a consequence of attempts to establish diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia.

I would also place launch of Turkmenistan-China pipeline in the rating of events. This has a very serious impact on the region and even will change geopolitical situation in it.

It's no secret that powerful countries are interested in Georgia and Azerbaijan as a communication corridor, which leads to large stocks of crude. However, in a situation where a pipeline was laid from the region towards the dynamic Chinese market, the fight for Russia's South Stream and West-backed Nabucco assumes entirely different meaning. This year all witnessed involvement of China, another very strong and active player, in the Caspian region.

In your opinion, are there prerequisites to open Turkey-Armenia border and to conclude a specific agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia this year?

I am very hopeful that it will happen. As to  prerequisites, every year experts express cautious assumptions about conflict resolution in any given year on both sides of the frontline. But I believe there is a real chance to solve the problem in 2010. I think there are quite successful prerequisites for this. However, the whole geopolitical situation in the region is so complex and fragile that any slightest hesitation can slow down everything.  

Concerning ratification, no matter how many people in the West, Armenia, and even some people in Turkey itself say that opening the border is not related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it is far from reality. Technically, maybe it looks that way, but in reality, of course, everything is interconnected, including the Turkish public opinion, which can not be ignored by any ruling party or its leaders. Thus, there should be progress in settlement of the Karabakh conflict to ensure Turkish society’s consent to the ratification. So, fate of the protocols’ ratification is not still clear.

In your opinion, if Armenia declines to take certain steps in terms of settlement of the Karabakh conflict, will Turkey's parliament never ratify the protocols?

I do think so. The movements must be at least formal, symbolic, so that the Turkish government had an argument with which to convince Turkey's public of loyalty to the course.

Should we expect any serious negotiations between Moscow and Ankara regarding the Nagorno Karabakh conflict during Turkish PM Erdogan’s upcoming Russia trip?  

I think problems of the Caucasus are not the main matter of debates in Russia-Turkish relations. There is no major controversy between Turkey and Russia in the region. So the main goal of the visit is to discuss energy projects.

H. Hamidov