Azerbaijani political expert: Former Armenian president tried to do so, but he was overthrown

Negotiations on peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been going on for 16 years. What changes did positions of the parties undergo at beginning and at the present stage of the Azerbaijani-Armenian dialogue?

Since the early days of the negotiations, Armenia wanted independence for Karabakh (plus Lachin and Goranboy regions), in exchange for liberation of several regions around the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region. Azerbaijan's position was liberation of all territories occupied by Armenia with the subsequent provision of high autonomy to Karabakh within country’s own territory.

In my opinion, novelty in resolving the Karabakh conflict is due to intensification of the negotiations as well as Azerbaijan's consent to Armenia’s liberation of the five regions around the borders of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region with subsequent return of Lachin and Kalbajar regions and a referendum on the status of Karabakh.

Armenia constantly toughens its claims. The evidence is the Armenian Constitution which shows  seven occupied regions of Azerbaijan bordering with the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region as "liberated lands of historical Armenia.”

Do you believe some loyalty by the OSCE Minsk Group influence tightening of Armenia's position?

On one hand, the OSCE Minsk managed to submit all imaginable and unimaginable solutions to the Karabakh issue during the negotiation process. In this regard, it appeared as a fairly efficient mechanism. On the other hand, the countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group are playing a double policy. They are constantly calling Azerbaijan, victim of aggression, for a peaceful solution to the protracted issue while they encourage Armenia, the aggressor country, by various kinds of assistance.

Russia provided military assistance worth $1.5 billion to Yerevan and also sells it energy at bargain prices. The U.S. provided assistance worth  $1.750 billion and the EU more than 0.5 billion euros for Yerevan. These countries, aiding the aggressor country, are also mediators in settling the Karabakh conflict. Of course, the position of these states is far from moral.

In your view, may the recently intensified meetings on resolving the Karabakh conflict lead to signing of any agreement in 2010?

Everything will depend on whether Serzh Sargsyan will be able tell his people truth, but not myth. Ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan had once tried to do this, but he was overthrown. Will Serzh Sargsyan be able to save Armenian people of nightmare of mythological consciousness? I do not know answer to this question, but Azerbaijan will not renounce its territories as it has repeatedly announced. It will also depend whether the mediators will stop supporting the sick mythological consciousness of the aggressor country.

Armenians traditionally mark anniversary of the so-called "Armenian genocide" that allegedly took place in the Ottoman Empire on April 24. In this context, what steps do you expect from Yerevan and the Armenian Diaspora?

Of course, recognition of the "Armenian genocide" will be raised in many countries as usual, including the United States. It is even possible that Washington will formally adopt the Armenian interpretation of events in the Ottoman Empire in 1915. However, I do not think that this could in any way harm Ankara or bring political dividends to Yerevan. Armenia is more interested in normalizing relations with Turkey than Turkey with Armenia.

With regard to recognition of "Armenian genocide", this is  "feeding" of the Armenian diaspora, some principle of identity. In this regard, there is some divergence of opinion between Yerevan and the Armenian diaspora. Armenia needs Turkey, and therefore Yerevan has to make a choice between plans to re-establish a "Greater Armenia", or conversion to a state where there is a national equality.

Z. Ahmadov