Azerbaijani expert: Turkey will try to speed up resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2010

Day.Az: How do you assess the outcome of Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov’s recent visit to Turkey?

Unfortunately, there are no detailed reports about the visit. There are usually a lot of words of friendship, brotherhood and strategic cooperation in such cases. In the meantime, this visit is linked, of course, with some changes in the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, and it should be seen as an attempt to solve the problems. Apparently, it was impossible to fully solve the problems. Therefore, the ministers preferred not to specifically discuss the problems making only habitual statements. This happens when usually they fail to achieve any particular result. Therefore it is difficult to give a clear assessment of Mammadyarov’s visit to Turkey.

The ministers did not sign a protocol to abolish the visa regime between Azerbaijan and Turkey contrary to expectations. Do you think this protocol will be signed soon? In what way it will benefit the two countries?

The Turkish side has long insisted on abolishing the visa requirements. Turkey unilaterally abolished visa requirements for Azerbaijani citizens from August 1, 2007. However, the Azerbaijani side has since avoided a similar step with regard to Turkish citizens. But Turkey insisted on abolishing the visa requirements all the time and it was becoming more difficult for the Azerbaijani side to seek explanation for refusal.

That is, abolition of a visa regime is not a routine and technical challenge for bilateral relations. Turkey still proved to be resistant and intended to resolve this issue during this visit. But this did not happen. In general, one thing is clear - in the course of negotiations the parties failed to resolve these problems this year with visa issue remaining a stumbling block.

It is hard to say Azerbaijan will abolish the visa regime in 2010. After all, this issue is in the context of other issues between the two countries. It is possible that Azerbaijan will not cancel the visa regime if Turkey ratifies the protocols signed with Armenia and reopens its borders with Armenia until the Karabakh conflict is resolved. So, one does not need to be sure that this issue will be addressed. At the same time, abolition of the visa regime would improve bilateral relations and lead to an increase in the arrival of Turkish citizens and, above all, businessmen in Azerbaijan.

How do you assess the year 2009 for the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations?

This was the worst year for the Azeri-Turkish relations since independence in 1991. The case even reached the public statements by politicians of the two countries with demarches with flags of both countries. For the first time the media started talking about cooling of relations and the end of the period of "brotherhood" and transition to relations in the category of "public interest". Fortunately, the crisis has partly been overcome largely due to the fact that the parties have an understanding of a mutual dependence and danger to both countries in case of total crisis in relations between the parties.

In your opinion, will Turkey attach importance to resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2010?

The coming year will be very difficult for Turkey. The "Armenian question" will be priority, of course. Turkey will eventually ratify the protocols which it will cause a new crisis in relations with Azerbaijan. Certainly, Turkey will try to speed up settlement of the Karabakh conflict with the help of the U.S. and EU. But the coming year is an election year. So, it is unrealistic to hope for a positive solution to the Karabakh issue in the election year. This means that Turkey will not be able play a significant role in resolving the Karabakh conflict.

How do you see the year 2010 for the South Caucasus?
 
We can hardly expect any serious changes in dynamics of developments in the region. No doubt, number of high-level meetings and travels of the Minsk Group co-chairs to the region will markedly increase in the first half. There will be very more optimistic statements. However, I think there is no need to hope for signing of the final document on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. When the time of elections comes, diplomatic activity will noticeably subside. And all hopes will be carried over to 2011. Also, there will be no changes in the South Ossetian and Abkhaz conflict, to be exact - the Georgian-Russian relations. There will be no major changes in this regard.

A. Hasanov