Azerbaijani MP: Armenia’s provocative moves will not influence Turkey

There are much talks in Armenia about country’s withdrawal from the Armenia-Turkey protocols. In your opinion, what consequences this move may have?  

If this happens, I think that from this moment Armenia's foreign policy will be aimed at placing all responsibility to Turkey for this step. Armenia will try to present withdrawal from the protocols to the international community as an obligatory step in response to Ankara's delay to ratify them.

Nevertheless, given the fact that recently Ankara linked ratification of the Turkey-Armenia protocols with progress in the Karabakh peace process, Turkey will not be influenced by  Yerevan’s any provocative moves and will act in a balanced way. On the other hand, Armenia is currently not ready to withdraw from the seven occupied regions which Azerbaijan and Turkey demand to do in the first stage of resolving the Karabakh problem. Therefore, Armenia should be pressured by outside forces to persuade it to liberate occupied Azerbaijani territories.

Which states can put pressure on Armenia?

I think the U.S. can put this pressure. Georgia is major U.S. ally in the South Caucasus. The U.S. will not leave this country without support. Following progress in settling Georgia’s territorial problems, America may become deeply engaged with resolving the Karabakh issue. But two forces - the Armenian diaspora in the United States and Russia are stumbling blocks for Washington in this regard. In the first case, I think the situation is simpler - the U.S. can agree with the Armenian diaspora living in the country to soften its stance on settlement of the Karabakh conflict. In the case of Russia, the situation is much more complicated.

Nevertheless, I believe that Washington will make certain concessions to Russia in Eastern Europe to achieve deeper penetration in our region. This conclusion are due to priorities of the United States which increasingly shifts to the south (the Middle East, Iran). So, I think that the pressure on Armenia in the Karabakh issue meets interests of the United States.

If the U.S. is interested in putting pressure on Armenia in the Karabakh issue, then why it provides financial assistance to secessionist entity in the territory of Azerbaijan?

The U.S. help for the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh, is, of course, a demonstration of double standards. Therefore, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry’s protest note to the U.S. is absolutely appropriate move. Despite this, I believe that Washington’s move aims to lure Armenia under its influence. But, more importantly, a strategic U.S. goal is a domination over the entire region of South Caucasus. But this task cannot be accomplished without resolving the Karabakh conflict.

How do you assess Azerbaijan-Turkey cooperation?

The two countries have no intractable problems and share coordinated positions on all issues.

What are your views on efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh  conflict?

The OSCE Minsk Group has long lost its credibility. It cannot cope with its tasks.

Z. Ahmadov