Russian MP: Turkey should act jointly with Russia, not U.S. in Karabakh issue

Day.Az: How serious are the recent discussions between Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and U.S. President Obama about Armenia’s leaving seven occupied Azerbaijani regions around the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region in exchange for Turkey's ratifying the Turkey-Armenia protocols and opening the borders?

Sergei Markov: This is not a subject of compromise between Armenia and Turkey. I think that relations between these countries will improve. There is another subject of the exchange involved- Armenia rejects claims about the "genocide of 1915” and Turkey gives up economic restrictions against the country.

I think, the situation is still closer to resolution which will create a fundamentally new situation in the region. Both sides will have quite substantial benefits from these steps. The fact that there are forces both in Armenia and in Turkey that are trying to keep the border closed clearly indicates that there is reason for a compromise, but not victory of one party.  

As to seven regions that were not part of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region during the Soviet Union, I think that they are becoming  basis for future compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan. When the Armenian armed forces return their control to Azerbaijan, in response they will gain some form of recognition of autonomy for Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as some form of recognition of Armenian control over the Lachin corridor. Because, Armenia’s control over Karabakh without control over this corridor is hard to exercise from a practical standpoint.

What will happen in future? I think, the Turkish side will try to get involved in a compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia believes that it would be better if Turkey acted according to its proposals together with Russia but not with the United States.

Because America today is still a major destabilizing force in the Caucasus region. It cannot exercise full control there, because it still does not want to contribute to it. There would be peace in the Caucasus if some force establishes full control over the region. But Americans are not able to establish full control there and are unwilling to spend their own resources for this purpose.

So, I think it would be better for the U.S. and the EU leave the region leaving behind only some economic ties and valuable policies, kindly treating all others and Russia and Turkey, as the main leaders of the peace process, would alone resolve all conflicts in the Caucasus. I think one should  expect success only in this case.

To what extent Russia is interested in full resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Or it does not matter for Russia at all?

Russia is interested in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Because fewer conflicts around its borders, the more calm the situation will be.  

Russia also wants to secure formation of a common economic area that would include besides the current Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine (in the near future) also Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Turkey. That is why it needs peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

First, Russia does not want foreign players to solve your problem at the expense of their interests. Secondly, Russia wants to ensure that this process takes place very quietly and slowly. Because there is likelihood not only to resolve the conflict, but also to unfreeze it and to launch a new war. We know very well that the second is obtained more easily than the first.

Do you believe that the current format of OSCE Minsk Group mediators is the only truly format for the parties? Is the group is able to bring something new into the talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents?

First, the Minsk format is the only working format which impedes start of a war. We all say that the conflict should be solved, but we must never forget that the existence of a peace, while not perfect, is more important than war.

Secondly, one can  think of dozens of different diplomatic formats. So, it is wrong to assume that the OSCE Minsk Group is the only possible  format. I believe South Caucasus, including the very three states, plus three countries around the Caucasus - Russia, Turkey and Iran, is the most optimal format to solve conflicts in the region. Unfortunately, the U.S. influence has a destabilizing effect on the region. Obama has not yet been able to completely abandon the Bush-Cheney policy.

Rasul Mehdiyev