Russian analyst: Armenia does not take Azerbaijan's statements seriously

Following the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents’ Munich meeting, the sides noted certain progress in the conflict resolution. What do you think about this progress?

I think there is positive dynamics in resolution of the conflict. Azerbaijan has a great role in this respect.

How great is Russia’s role in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Of course, Russia has a great role in this regard. New players have been involved with the resolution process in recent years. I mean co-chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group. Now Russia is not the only country with dominant position in this issue.

Is the Kremlin  really interested in resolving the conflict or protracted settlement process is the best option for it?

I think that the Kremlin is interested in resolving the situation, because the unstable situation near its borders disturbs Russia. From a military viewpoint, Armenia is Russia’s ally in the Caucasus. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is a traditional and reliable trade and economic partner for Russia.

Recently there was a statement that once peace talks fail, Azerbaijan will return occupied lands by force. Will Russia, who shares CSTO membership with Armenia, in this case join the war on the Armenian side?

I'm aware of that statement. Armenia does not take these statements seriously. Otherwise, we would have witnessed withdrawal of troops from the occupied territories.

Of course, Armenia is a CSTO member. However, Nagorno-Karabakh is not from any viewpoint. So, I think Russia is less likely to take Armenia’ side in this conflict. However, I do not think that Russia would react calmly to possible military action in the region and will certainly provide some negative assessment.

What are your views regarding the protocols signed to normalize Turkey-Armenia ties? Both sides are holding serious debates on this issue. Do you believe Turkey and Armenia will ratify the protocols?

I think the protocols are most likely to be ratified. We will have to hold very hard discussions. It is possible that the documents will be adopted with some modifications.

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said at a ruling Republican Party meeting that he will not allow Azerbaijan to claim inch of land of Karabakh. How would you describe this statement given that the president takes part in the  Karabakh negotiations. Perhaps, Armenia is not actually interested in solving the problem?

I believe Armenia is interested in resolving the conflict especially for economic reasons. I think in this statement Sargsyan was referring to a referendum to determine Karabakh's status, where Armenian residents will vote against return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan. This statement is intended primarily for people of Armenia as a whole, as the target audience.
 
What is your assessment of the bilateral economic ties between Azerbaijan and Russia including in the energy sector?

Azerbaijan has demonstrated high economic growth since the late 1990s. Azerbaijan is one of the few former Soviet countries which could  actually form its own national identity, effectively expanding economy and a model of political system. One should also note the actual leaders of this country. Heydar Aliyev is a politician on a global scale who enjoyed a high public trust and led the country in a rather difficult period.

Azerbaijan is noted for effectiveness its actions and its foresight. Encouraging foreign investments, cooperation with the world's largest corporations in the commodity sector with such a competitive approach is noteworthy.

The relations between Azerbaijan and Russia are rapidly developing. I think further development of bilateral relations will depend on whether Russian companies will participate in large energy projects in Azerbaijan or whether Azerbaijan will participate in projects in which Russia is not involved.

One can understand Azerbaijan since a country with so many interests will diversify its risks.


H. Hamidov