UK expert : Turkish prime minister visits U.S. in very important time

Do you expect the visit of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the United States to influence Turkish-Armenian relations and settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

This is an important time for the Turkish Prime Minister to be visiting the US. There are many issues on the agenda for both sides, including Iraq, Afghanistan, the Iran Nuclear File and others. However clearly the Caucasus will also be one of the issues discussed. Turkey has been very active in the region in the last two years. This reflects a new confidence in Turkish diplomacy.

What do you think of future of the Armenian-Turkish protocols which have not been ratified yet?

The Turkish-Armenian protocols were signed  less than eight weeks ago. The process of ratification in both countries will take some time. Timing is now very important since on the one hand the momentum must not be lost, on the other hand the governments need to wait for the right conditions to present the agreements for ratification to their parliaments. Progress in the negotiations on the Karabakh conflict will certainly make the conditions better.

Do you think Turkish diplomatic “invasion” in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been success?

I will not call it an invasion, but rather an awakening. Turkey is a regional power in the Caucasus and until recently it was reluctant to engage seriously with the problems of the region. It has now started doing so. It is too early to say how successful this new engagement will be, but the normalisation of relations with Armenia, and the launch of the Caucasus Stability and Co-operation Platform are positive steps that have been broadly welcomed by the international community. Turkey is not engaged directly in the negotiations on the Karabakh conflict settlement but because of its proximity, size, historical connections – and indeed because of its special relationship with Azerbaijan – it has a useful contribution to make to creating the best conditions for peace in the region.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov admitted that there are positive dynamics in the current negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and both sides together with the Minsk Group Co-chairs have agreed to intensify negotiations. Do you believe in progress any time soon?

I do not think that stalemate is an option any more. The sides are reportedly very close to agreeing at least the basic principles on which to conduct a proper peace process. These next steps must now be taken. The Presidents and Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan have worked very hard over the last year on these issues. This should be appreciated by all. It is now decision time.

Do you share the view that the West (the U.S., EU) don’t play an active role settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Russia remaining major mediator. If it is true, what should be done to make the West to show more interest in settlement of the conflict?  

The international community has been quite united in its efforts to promote a peaceful resolution to the Karabakh conflict. The three Minsk Group co-Chair – the US, Russia and France – are all equal. Russia feels closer to the conflict because of history and other reasons but on this issue it has not acted unilaterally. A solution will require the support of all the key players in the international community. The sleeping giant has been the European Union which has largely limited itself to supporting the Minsk Group Co-Chair work. In a report that LINKS published on 1 December on the Karabakh conflict settlement process we say that support for the Minsk process should not be an excuse for inertia.

The EU may not have been directly involved in the Karabakh negotiations so far, but the moment there is a breakthrough the EU must engage very actively. It has the skills and the resources to support the peace process, it has an interest to do so because Karabakh is within its immediate neighbourhood, and it also has good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The EU is excellent in projecting soft power. In future this can be an important contribution to the settlement of the conflict. For example the European Union must be ready to engage on a big scale with any peace monitoring operation. We don’t need troops with Tanks and missiles in Karabakh but a monitoring force of diplomats in jeans and soldiers who can talk diplomatically as well as they can shoot guns.


/Day.Az/