Azerbaijani conflictologist: Turkey-Armenia protocols not to be ratified any time soon

Do you believe the Turkey-Armenia protocols will finally be ratified? Which of the sides is likely to ratify them first?

I think the Turkey-Armenia protocols will not to be ratified any time soon because we know the mood in the Turkish society and parliament and even in government. Prime Minister Erdogan has repeatedly stated that ratification of protocols is impossible without liberation of occupied Azerbaijani territories.

So I do not think even his upcoming meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama will help move this issue because this issue has already become agenda of Turkey’s domestic policy. So, now it is not an Azerbaijani issue any longer, but a purely Turkish. Of course, if Armenia and Azerbaijan sign an agreement on troop withdrawal and liberation of Azerbaijan’s territories, the ratification will certainly be possible.

As for Armenia, it can either expect Turkey to ratify the protocols or it may itself ratify the protocols first to play with the world public opinion to show that it has already signed the document and it respects its commitments made in Zurich. They can use it as a propaganda. Both options is possible.

Do you think Russia is interested in opening of Armenia-Turkey border?  Does Russia fear that Turkey may step up its influence in the Caucasus?

I think Russia is interested in resumption of diplomatic ties between the two countries. Because it was stated on top level that Russia is interested in this process. Once such statements have been made, we can not say that Russia is against this process. In addition, Russian foreign minister attended the Zurich meeting.

In meantime, Russia has its interests in this matter. It is connected with the Georgian events above all. Open borders would allow Russia to have good trade relations with Turkey and enjoying even more influence on Armenia. Russia understands that the Turkish-Armenian border will be opened sooner or later. If this process takes place with Russia’s support, it will win and increase its influence. One should bear in mind that Russia has many economic projects in Armenia and it wants to implement them through Turkey.

Is there still a need to change format of the OSCE Minks Group?  Maybe it is high time for the European Union to deal with the issue?

Of course, the Azerbaijani side does not trust the Minsk Group, but it really has no other choice. Azerbaijan cannot deny the OSCE Minsk service. On the other hand, the EU will not be able to independently engage in the settlement process because of Russia. Azerbaijan wants Turkey to be one of the co-chairs. But the three powers had already monopolized the Nagorno-Karabakh process and do not allow anyone to learn even more details of ongoing negotiations, even countries that are ordinary members of the Minsk Group.

So, if Azerbaijan refuses Minsk Group mediation services, then who will take over mediation? European Union is very diversified group of states some of who have polar views on just outcome of the conflict. Therefore, it would be better if the format of the mediators was composed of not regional countries. But it's to late to do it now.


/Day.Az/