Dialogue on adoption of a Caspian Sea convention is stalled: expert

Day.Az: What results may the upcoming summit of the Caspian littoral states to be held in Baku yield?

Rustam Mammadov: There is a strong need for environment, venue and, most importantly, reasonable parties to sign a serious document like an agreement on the status of the Caspian Sea.

Some states participating in the discussion on status of the Caspian Sea are now more busy with their internal problems than decision-making on the reservoir. On the other hand, judging by both decreasing population of sturgeon in the Caspian Sea, it may be noted that the environmental problems of the sea are becoming more urgent.

The solution of these problems is impossible without a decision on status of the Caspian Sea. But today words and actions of some of the Caspian littoral states do not converge. Although the  importance of demilitarization of the Caspian Sea is discussed, the states increase their military presence in the sea and, for example, Turkmenistan demonstrates disintegration despite the statements about importance of integration in the region.

In this situation, it is difficult to expect something efficient especially because after a meeting of representatives of committees on the status of the Caspian Sea, the dialogue on adoption of a convention on the Caspian Sea was actually stalled on defining boundaries and establishing factors of ownership.

Q: Is there a need to differentiate between the status of the Caspian Sea and problem of security of the Caspian Sea?

A: Of course. For example, Azerbaijan is interested in economic issues on the Caspian Sea while Iran does not think so. Tehran sees oilmen in the Caspian Sea as military men.

Turkmenistan moves from the solution of economic issues in the Caspian Sea to military aspects.

Regarding the relations between Kazakhstan and Russia on the Caspian Sea, although they are of partnership nature, there is no full trust between the parties.

For all these reasons, the issue of security in the Caspian Sea is critically important. Periodically, the Caspian states move away from peaceful statements to confrontation. Therefore, the problem of militarization of the Caspian Sea has become very topical and it is impossible talk about any breakthrough in the multilateral negotiations until the process is completed.

Q: How different are position of Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan on one hand, and Turkmenistan on the other hand?  Will Baku and Ashgabat be able to come to terms on dividing the Caspian Sea in the foreseeable future?

A: I think that a breakthrough is less likely to happen in talks with Turkmenistan in the near future. Ashgabat solves its economic problems in conjunction with Tehran, and therefore, if Turkmenistan joins the three countries that have already decided among themselves on issues dividing the Caspian Sea, there will be no need for Iran as a negotiator. On  its part, Tehran will prevent such development of events.

So, without solving this problem, Turkmenistan will not agree to anything.

Day.Az