Armenian-Turkish border will inevitably be opened: Russian expert

Day.Az: When do you think the updated Madrid principles will be presented to the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia?

Alexei Vlasov: Many views have already been expressed in this respect. There is some vague   wording about it. It is the maximum officials can now say about this issue. Apparently, there are some points and questions that should be finally negotiated to make a consistent and clear stance.

Q: There were a lot of different opinions about impact of the Armenian-Turkish dialogue on Karabakh conflict ... What is Russia’s position Russia in this regard?

A: Both Foreign Ministry and Russia's leadership form their stance most carefully at the official level which is quite understandable. They prioritize the principle of "do no harm" as  every careless word, every careless phrase, especially at such a high level by the state involved in settlement of conflicts in South Caucasus can be interpreted in many different ways and lead to negative consequences. I believe, Moscow's official position on this issue is quite appropriate at the moment.

As for my personal opinion, I see three factors. First, protocols will probably be ratified, and after some time borders will inevitably be opened. The second is that whether the Armenian-Turkish agreement will be supplemented with some preconditions which will further define the format of resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. I think, there is 50-percent likelihood that the official statements by Turkish officials addressed to the Azerbaijani leadership are well founded. This is not an attempt to create a smokescreen around the ratification of the protocols.

I am confident that further negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are underway. The third factor is whether the present leadership of Armenia will be able to convince the people of Armenia and the Diaspora that at the moment the question of "genocide" should be deferred and to what extent the population of Armenia is ready to understand that regions which are under occupation should be returned to Azerbaijan as a first step. The main point is for Armenian society to move towards compromise.

Q: What is the current state of talks between Russia and the U.S. on missile shield deployment?

A: Negotiations are on the same stage they were a few weeks ago when U.S. announced its willingness to radically change its approach to the format of deployment. In other words, the talks are underway. However, but it would be overly optimistic to say that they will soon lead to some results. This is linked with a kind of prevailing approach by the Barack Obama administration to address key foreign policy issues.

Originally a powerful, relevant, strategic initiative was put forward. But later it turned out that it lacks technical and fundamental principles that must be determined in the course of implementation of the initiative itself. Therefore, it takes quite a long time from a beautiful media delivery of the U.S. president’s statement to developing concrete principles which can help this statement take effect. Unfortunately, we face similar situation.

Q: It is believed that Azerbaijan could begin to consider alternative gas supplies to Europe, because the negotiations with Turkey on gas exports were not constructive so far. Could this lead to the demise of the Nabucco project?

A: The issue of alternative gas supply routes is not only of economic but also of a political nature. There is a specific political context and certain political points. In essence, Azerbaijan takes a quite pragmatic approach, uses its energy potential as much as possible to participate in various projects, which also involves neighboring countries and countries close to the region.

Often understanding of Azerbaijan’s stance by other states, does not always means understanding Azerbaijan’s interests on a range of issues. Hence, sometimes a misunderstanding manifested even in political points and energy transportation and economic issues.

I think that any option is possible, including the one where Azerbaijan can choose a different, alternative model of gas transportation. In any case, it will be the decision of the Azerbaijani leadership, and it will be fully reasonable and justified.

/Day.Az/