Russia is not going to make case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia a model for resolving other conflicts: Russian expert

Day.Az: Do you think the attacks of militants in the North Caucasus, which took place previously, is a manifestation of separatism, or there are different purposes behind it?

Nikolai Silayev: There are no political forces in the North Caucasus that would serve under the slogans of a secular, nationalist separatism. "Caucasus Emirate" proclaimed by Doku Umarov is formally a separatist project. But his supporters act under the slogans of radical Islamism. In addition, proclaiming the establishment of this structure in the summer of 2007, Umarov thereby "closed", abolished the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, which just was a secular separatist project. "Last of the Mohicans" of Ichkeria, London-based exile Ahmed Zakayev has been negotiating with Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov, and publicly endorsed his policy, thereby removing from the agenda the idea of an independent state.

The actions of militants in the North Caucasus have different motives. Militants are largely recruited from those who have a reason to be dissatisfied with the authorities. These people are primarily based on desire for revenge, and, secondarily, on the basis of ideological considerations. To some extent, militant groups could link up with ordinary criminal groups. No separatism as an organized political force exists in other post-Soviet countries in the North Caucasus.

Q: Can this destabilization spread to neighboring Azerbaijan?

A: Now I do not see signs of this. The problems that exist in the North Caucasus have specifically Russian and specifically the North Caucasian roots. The situation in Azerbaijan is different.

Q: Where do you see the main threat of a possible destabilization in the North Caucasus?

A: I do not expect large-scale destabilization in the North Caucasus. There is stably difficult situation, and what is happening now not seems to me as a sign of impending destabilization, but local resurgence of tensions.

With regard to the factors that support this tension, they are cited repeatedly by the highest stands in Russia: poor governance, corruption, arbitrariness of power structures. The difficulty is that this is not specific problems of the North Caucasus, this is problem throughout Russia and the Caucasus situation will not improve before we will demonstrate ability to solve these problems across the country.

Q: Can the events of August last year influence the settlement of the Karabakh conflict?

A: The events of August last year have already had an impact on resolution of the Karabakh conflict. All South Caucasus has increased understanding of how dangerous is an attempt of a military solution to the problems caused by ethno-political conflicts. In addition, August was one of the indirect causes of intensification of Turkey’s foreign policy in the Caucasus. This is manifested in particular in attempts to normalize the Armenian-Turkish relations, which may in the future affect the state of the Karabakh problem. I think so far "August effect” has exhausted in the Caucasus (I'm not talking about other regions and other areas of Russia's foreign policy). Moreover, Russia has demonstrated quite clearly that is not going to make the case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia a model for resolving other similar conflicts.

Q: It is now more frequently stated that the Karabakh conflict is not "frozen". Do you see any possibility of renewed hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the near future?

A: Both sides are sober enough to not make irreparable mistakes. As for the third player, it is appropriate to recall the mid-August last year, when the U.S. sent its warships into the Black Sea, and Russia tested ballistic missile "Topol-M.” None of the major powers want sort out things again in the same spirit as last year. So, the big players are rather interested in preserving stability.

/Day.Az/