Karabakh conflict can be solved in the coming months: political expert

Day.Az: On Oct. 10, Turkey and Armenia signed protocols to normalize relations. How do you see further developments in the region in this respect?

Eldar Namazov: I think that the signing of Turkish-Armenian protocols is the first step in changing balance of forces in the region. This is most likely a reaction to a new situation in the region, which occurred after the conflict between Georgia and Russia in August 2008.

Following these events, Armenia found itself in a fairly serious situation, when its communication with Russia through Georgia were cut off. In this situation the decline in GDP over the last year in Armenia was 20 percent. Therefore, Armenians were forced to seek an urgent solution to the situation and one of the remedies was opening of borders and cooperation with Turkey. But for that Armenia was forced to reconsider some of its positions.

I think that relations between Turkey and Armenia will develop positively and after a while we will witness an entirely new situation in the South Caucasus. So one can not look at the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols as something isolated and accidental.

We're talking about serious and deep processes in the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan should take into account the fact that the current South Caucasus is not what it was even 2 years ago, and these major changes will be sustained.

Q: What will be the next steps by Turkey? Will the parliament ratify protocols?

A: I think time delay is possible in terms of ratification of the protocols. Turkey will play for time and wait for continuation of negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which can be solved in the coming months. But, ultimately, I think that Turkey will ratify protocols, since they include serious moments which Ankara have long sought.

This is Armenia's recognition of Turkey’s current borders and setting up of a commission that will examine historical facts related to the so-called "genocide". For a long time, Turkey raised these matters, but the Armenian side was not ready to make concessions. So, these protocols are very important for Turkey.

Q: You said earlier that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be resolved in the coming months. So, you think that the Turkish-Armenian border will be opened only after the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

A: It is very difficult to talk about it with certainty, but it is clear that the Turkish authorities do not accidentally state openly that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will keep his promises to Azerbaijan that the Turkish-Armenian border will be not opened till there is progress in Nagorno-Karabakh issue. So I think that Turkey would wait for the results of new rounds of negotiations on the Karabakh settlement.

But no one can assert unequivocally that without progress in the Karabakh issue the protocols will not be ratified and borders will not be opened because a very serious process has already been launched which involves Russia, the United States and the EU and Turkey can not ignore this fact.

Q: Do you agree that the opening of borders between Turkey and Armenia could aggravate situation in the region?

A: That concern exists, and, referring to the aggravation, we must bear in mind two things at once.

First, and both in Turkey and in Armenia there are many forces that are opposed to the protocols signed, and the internal political situation in these countries could get worse.

Secondly, there is concern that the signing of these protocols and opening of borders may toughen Armenia’s position in the negotiation process on Karabakh.

Quite a lot of western experts believe that, on the contrary, the internal protests in both countries will subside after a while and then they will see positive results from this cooperation and it will impact achievement of a compromise on Karabakh.

I think the problem is that whether this process will cause a new aggravation of the situation, or, conversely, foster tolerance and lead to conflict resolution in the South Caucasus depends on Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, as well as the position of the international community. The mere opening of the borders guarantees neither the one nor the other. It all depends on what steps will be taken by the parties involved in this process and Azerbaijan as well.

/Day.Az/