Armenian-Americans are upset over U.S. pressure on Armenia to accept the protocols: senior fellow at Hudson University

Day.Az: Do you think any significant changes in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have been happening lately? What, in your opinion, can help to resolve the conflict?

David Satter: The Madrid principles are being upgraded to help bridge the remaining differences between the two sides. At the same time, Armenia and Turkey are normalizing their bilateral relations. All this gives some grounds for optimism that it will be possible to reach a settlement. The point is that the two sides appear to be coming less irreconcilable. Questions of detail are not the same thing as questions of principle. It’s possible to compromise when the issue is a matter of detail.

Q: What can you say on the updated Madrid principles that the OSCE co-chairs will present to Armenia and Azerbaijan? What exactly can be implied by "upgraded"?

A: No one is sure what is meant by “upgraded” principles. Matt Bryza suggested said that the changes are neither fundamental nor cosmetic. I presume that there will be more of an effort to include the views of Karabakh’s current residents but that is only a guess. The important thing is that some of the psychology of confrontation appears to be dissipating. Under those circumstances, even significant changes in the principles may be manageable.

Q: An opinion exists that the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is complicated by disagreement among the Armenian diaspora and official authorities of Armenia. How true is this opinion?

A: Armenian-Americans are upset over U.S. pressure on Armenia to accept the protocols on the normalization of relations with Turkey. But it would be a mistake to attribute too much power to any diaspora when it comes to affecting the decisions of established countries. A good example is the ability of the Jewish diaspora to affect the policies of Israel. As a rule, representatives of a diaspora are expected to support the policies of their countries of origin not to make them.

Q: Considering the current complicated relations between the U.S. and Iran, how real are the military actions against Iran?

I think it is highly unlikely that the U.S. will take military action against Iran. There is just no enthusiasm in the U.S. for further military engagements. The country is already preoccupied with the worsening situation in Afghanistan and the economic crisis and everyone realizes that an attack on Iran would have devastating and completely unpredictable consequences. There are signs that even Israel is reconsidering the wisdom of an attack on Iran.

T. Teymur
Day.Az