Turkish diplomats are increasingly listened to: French political expert

Day.Az: There is an opinion that intensified U.S. efforts in the South Caucasus region may significantly ease the overall condition the region and help to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict…

Rene Wadlow: It is unlikely that the US government will get more involved in South Caucasus mediation than it already is, along with France and Russia, and that is probably not a bad thing.  Motion toward creating a security zone accepted by all has to come from forces within the area - both governments and civil society.  We have seen that long, but on-and-off US involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict has not moved the parties in positive directions.  

The U.S. is too involved in the Afghanistan-Pakistan-Iran-Iraq area to take on new tasks, especially that the Afghan-Pakistan situation seems to be getting worse. Great Powers, having universal interests, make for poor mediators, but even smaller States like Norway was not able to do much for a peaceful settlement in Sri Lanka. My hope is for an increased role by civil society forces, people who want to get on with their lives, and who find that «permanent conflicts» do nothing to make life easier, especially at a time of economic turndown.

Q: Armenian diaspora strong opposes the Turkish-Armenian protocols. The ruling party of Armenia seems to be trying to get along with Turkey. Some even think that after the protocols are signed, the borders will still not be opened. How can you comment on that?

A: I think that the same feeling of «moving on» to a more satisfying lifebeyond permanent conflicts was at work in the useful Armenian-Turkish protocols that should be signed by the Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian on October 10. I think that the impact will be more psychological and political than economic. Politically, especially for Turkey. It is an important step in its increasingly active foreign policy.  Turkey has the most to gain in showing regional leadership. Its diplomats are increasingly listened to - if it formally joins the Minsk OSCE team or not.  The Turkish emphasis on a «Caucasus Stability and Co-operation Platform» has made it a key 'player' for the area, certainly an equal to Russia, which has too many irons in the fire to be able to pay continuous attention.
 
For the Armenians, although there are people who still have strong, historically-based resistance to Turkey, I think that most want to move ahead. There is already a good deal of Armenia-Turkey trade via Georgia, so it is unlikely that there will be a big jump or much in the way of joint ventures. But the protocols are an important sign of a lowering of tensions, perhaps, a spirit that can carry over to the Iran negotiations.

Q: What condition are the Iranian nuclear program talks currently in?

A: On October 1,, there were the start of Iran negotiations here in Geneva - a testimony to the abiding “Spirit of Geneva” where all States can come together to talk. In some ways the city is too nice so that negotiators keep coming back to keep talking, nearly endlessly as we see with the Russia-Georgia-Abkazia-South Ossetia negotiations at the Palasis des Nations. The spirit around the Iran negotiations seems to have been positive. For the moment, there is an over-emphasis on the Iranian nuclear program and not enough on the tense regional context in which Iran finds itself. There needs to be a «Stability and Co-operation Platform» for that area as well. We will have to watch the Iranian negotiations closely, but the start is positive.

T. Teymur
Day.Az