Agression against Azerbaijan has left Armenia a third world nation: U.S. expert

Day.Az: Do you expect progress from upcoming Chisinau meeting of Azerbaijan and Armenian presidents given the current situation in the region?
    
Jason Katz: Given the impending changes in the region between Turkey and Armenia and Armenia’s seeming mood for negotiation, I am hopeful that progress will be made at the October 8th meeting. In addition, given President Aliyev’s groundbreaking and hopeful remarks of late, I am encouraged. It is actually pretty typical of President Aliyev’s pragmatic and far thinking way of conducting and dealing with the interests of Azerbaijan. 

I am hesitant to predict that any document will be agreed to at that meeting or agreements signed, however, as I think Armenia is able to focus on one issue at a time.

I will say that after watching how President Ilham Aliyev conducts diplomacy and politics for some years now, I do believe that the President will make it clear to Mr. Sargsian that Armenia’s long term prosperity and success is inextricably linked to peace with Azerbaijan.

This fact is widely accepted and understood as a given by those in the US who follow the politics of the region. The unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan has left Armenia isolated, dependent on Russia and Iran and left out of the very significant prosperity of the region, as a whole.

Q: Turkey and Armenia are going to sign protocols on normalization of relations. How do you comment that intention?

A: The fact that Turkey and Armenia are moving toward rapprochement and normalization of relations is a positive sign for the entire region. The issues associated with Azerbaijan, Turkey and Armenia have been frozen for too long and a result of Armenian action in the early 90’s against Azerbaijan. This fact has left Armenia essentially a third world nation with rampant poverty, corruption and, again, dependent on Russia and Iran.

It is extremely important, however, that this movement does not lose sight of Azerbaijan and her territorial integrity. Indeed, Turkey has expressed repeatedly and forcefully that the border closing between Armenia and Turkey was a result of Armenia’s invasion of Azerbaijan. Should this lynch pin piece be overlooked, the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia will be for naught.

It is important to note and recognize the timing of these negotiations. There is a mere two days between the talks. The relation in time gives me hope for a regional resolution.

I do hope that Mr. Sargsian has the needed political clout and fortitude to withstand the vitriolic objections of the Armenian Diaspora. There has been a very unfortunate response in the US by the Armenian Diaspora to this move toward normalization. There have been open letters published to Mr. Sargsian, demonstration, etc. against this process. It is really very unfortunate that Armenia’s first move toward becoming a full member of the region and pulling themselves out of isolation and poverty is so opposed by their brothers and sisters.

Q: Can Turkey-Armenia protocols have an impact on resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

A: I think that if Armenia is serious about normalization and rapprochement in the long term and is seeing these issues from a “big picture” sense, yes, this will affect the Karabahk process positively.

Karabakh is the “white elephant in the room,” as we say in the U.S. It is the key issue that is not yet being talked about enough.

Again, the issue of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity must be resolved for the long term success of Armenia. Let me be a bit more candid, at the last Davos conference, the Armenian foreign minister expressed his nation’s desire for oil and gas pipelines traversing Armenia. This caused absolutely appropriate smile.

The fact remains, if Armenia wants to share in the oil and gas wealth that the other nations are availing themselves, it needs give back what is clearing and internationally recognized as Azerbaijan’s land and Let the nearly 1 million refugees to return home.  

Q: Do you expect a peace agreement on Karabagh in near future?

A: This all depends on if Armenia and Mr. Sargsian are thinking tactically or strategically. I hope it is the latter.

If Mr. Sargsian and Armenia are thinking in a strategic sense, they will recognize what I have said before - Armenia’s long term success is linked in the deepest of ways to Azerbaijan.

If Armenia is thinking in a tactical sense, they will ultimately have very little gain, save the short term public relations gain.

It is my sincere hope to see Armenia join the very progressive and prosperous region by following through with normalization with Turkey and giving back Karabakh. Of course, Turkey can be instrumental in seeing this dream to its completion. 

/Day.Az/