Having made a step towards Turkey, Armenia secured a peace for some time: Institute of Globalization Problems director

Day.Az: As you know, Dmitry Medvedev has promised Barack Obama to support economic sanctions against Tehran if it does not compromise in terms of actively implemented Iranian nuclear program. What one can expect from a meeting in Geneva to be held in October?

Mikhail Delyagin: I think, nothing critical, even despite testing of the Iranian long-range missiles (although Western experts believe that it is not 2, but only 1,300 km). Sanctions will be moderate and tolerant, as Medvedev has given consent to them in principle, but not on any sanctions at all, that would come to someone’s head. It is possible that China, for which Iran is the largest supplier of oil, would veto. If sanctions are excessive, we can also do it.

Iran is not preparing for war. It needs only to protect itself. Ahmadinejad, who grew up on the front, knows that in the event of war he will have to deliver a speech not in American universities, but only in underground shelters - and even not very long. Therefore, the Iranian program is not offensive, but is basically a peaceful (they are really modernizing their country, their one plant produces more ethylene than the whole of Russia). They seek to send all oil produced to refineries and export and receive energy from nuclear power plants.  

Source of tension is Israel, which treats Iran as an enemy (after denial of Holocaust it is understandable).

The United States, who do not want overall transformation of the Middle East into bloody chaos (which is why they did not make a fully prepared military strike on Iran in 2005-2006) and who do not want to be an accomplice of Israel in this (and they had to because the strike would be made through the territory they control) will want to pull the time. That is why they discuss the topic of sanctions.

Q: How the situation with the Iranian nuclear program may generally impact the South Caucasus?

A: I think it will have no impact: there will be no attack on Iran and will be no attempt to break it up into national pieces. I think a program of economic modernization of Iran will have a greater influence on the Caucasus, as it will inevitably enhance cooperation and create a new regional center.

Q: Some believe that Armenia will benefit from open borders with Turkey while others think that Armenia will have many negative consequences in case of open borders. What is your opinion?

A: The negative consequences is undermining national identity, which relied heavily on tearing away from Turkey. Positive result will be improved economic situation, but the real reason for opening of the borders had seemed to avoid a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Having made a step towards Turkey, Armenia secured peace for some time.

Q: There is an opinion that Armenia may gradually withdraw from the military-strategic influence of Russia. Do you think establishment of the Turkish-Armenian relations will alienate Armenia from Russia?

A: The mere establishment of these relations will not alienate Armenia from Russia.

/Day.Az/