George Mason University professor: Turkey is not serious about normalizing relations with Armenia

Day.Az: Turkey refuses to open the borders with Armenia without full resolution of the Karabakh conflict, while the protocol between Armenia and Turkey doesn’t mention the conflict at all. Do you believe that the Nagorno Karabakh problem will be the main topic of discussion in the Turkey-Armenia negotiations?
 
Mark Katz: Many here in Washington believe that because Turkey set resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a pre-condition for Turkey opening its border with Armenia, the Turkish government is, in fact, not serious about normalizing relations with Armenia.  It doesn't seem likely that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be resolved any time soon.  Turkey's willingness to even talk about normalizing relations with Armenia seems aimed more at improving Turkey's relations with the Obama Administration.

Q: The opposition parties of both Armenia and Turkey are against normalization of relations between the two countries. Do you think both countries are ready for the next step in their relations?

A: It seems that on a person-to-person level, Turks and Armenians are able to deal with each other. Many Armenians now in vacation in Turkey. I understand that there are also now direct flights between Turkey and Armenia. Trade between the two nations is also increasing.  Still, politicians on both sides who wish to cooperate with the other are vulnerable to nationalist criticism in their own country.  And politicians are usually not likely to take risks if they see them as jeopardizing their careers.
 
Q: The U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan has not yet been named. Given the high interest in the South Caucasus region at this time, the new ambassador will probably be named very soon. Among the possible candidates is Matthew Bryza. Do you believe anyone else who could be appointed to this position?
 
A: I have met Matthew Bryza on several occasions and believe that he is exceptionally talented.  He would certainly be a good U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan.  I wonder, though, if the Obama Administration sees him as a Bush Administration holdover, and would prefer to appoint someone more closely associated either with Obama or Clinton.  Of course, the appointment process is moving so slowly that it may be awhile before anyone is appointed.
 
T. Teymur
Day.Az