Russia, Iran are able to prevent construction of gas or oil routes via Caspian: German expert

Day.Az:  It is still unknown who will replace U.S. co-chair of the Minsk Group Matthew Bryza. Reports claiming that Tina Kaidanow is likely to replace him were not confirmed. Whom do you think the U.S. will appoint for this post?

Alexander Rahr:  I am not aware of this issue. It is too complicated question. It is necessary to understand the internal rearrangements of Barack Obama’s team. Unfortunately, I can not answer to his question.

Q: When the question of deploying peacekeeping force in Karabakh was raised, there were a lot of views regarding which nations should be involved with it. In particular, the question arises whether it is better to involve neutral countries rather than Russia or the United States which are mediators of the conflict. I would like to know your opinion with this regard…

A: Well, you know, usually peacekeepers of neutral countries are sent to such hot spots. In particular, only they can build peace. Neutral countries have always enjoyed great prestige among peacekeepers. I think it should be the same case with Nagorno-Karabakh. But also we must not forget that the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has a definite ‘taste’ and peculiarity.

There is a double question - solution to the Karabakh conflict in the legal form for the sake of stability in the territory. It is no secret, in fact, issues of energy security, oil and gas pumping from Russia via the South Caucasus, gas transport bypassing Russia play very important role.

With regard to peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, I do not think only neutral countries will be involved. Naturally, the great powers, members of the Minsk process will try to have big ‘package of control’ over the situation.

Q: Leaders of Caspian littoral countries will meet in Aktau, Kazakhstan to discuss legal status of the Caspian Sea. What one can expect from this informal meeting?

A: I would say that the situation today is permissible. Questions about the status of the Caspian Sea have been discussed for 20 years since the Soviet Union collapsed. There are some clear positions. Previously, there were few,  but now there is two. On the one hand, this is the position of Russia and Iran to divide fairly among all five littoral states. Of course, one can not divide water as it is international property. Thus, Russia and Iran have a specific tool able to prevent construction of any gas or oil routes through the waters of the Caspian Sea.

Actually, I do not think that the situation may change in some fundamental way, as this status quo is well established now for 10 years.

Q: To what degree is the agreement by all littoral states important in discussions over some projects related to the Caspian pipeline?

A: I think international law requires consent of all participants in the process, all countries that are directly related to the Caspian Sea to which sectors of the sea belong. I think without that the situation in no way will be brought under legal control. International law must operate, it does exist and must be applied and they must negotiate.

Why this can not be done now? Because Russia and Iran do not western pipe to be built bypassing Russia and Iran and they will slow the whole process of full opening of the Caspian Sea to build those pipes.

At the same time, one can understand Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan - countries that want to get out of the current isolation and there is a need to use routes across the Caspian to boost independence from Russia's transit routes. I think that this is matter of very complex negotiations. One needs to have patience.

I do not think that Russia and Iran will show indulgence. I think one should withstand and continue to negotiate. I do not expect the result of changing the status quo.

/Day.Az/