The situation is not as desperate as before: Russian political expert

Day.Az: What are your comments on the fact that numerous meeting between Azerbaijani and Armenian president have not ended with signing significant documents despite official statements and opinion of experts who says that  light at the end of the tunnel of conflict settlement is already visible?

Fedor Lukyanov: Although the light at the end of the tunnel is seen, the tunnel is very long. The parties have not even reached middle of the tunnel. I favor the view that any settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict will be possible when there will be changes for better not only in relation to the Karabakh conflict, but also other conflicts in the entire region.

The attempt which was made last year to defrost relations between Armenia and Turkey have not yielded any results and, in general, all became stalled. The reason is not only a démarche by Azerbaijan, but also a large number of problems between Armenia and Turkey, the start of resolution of which is easy to declare, but really it is very difficult to solve them. As a result, players of regional policy, not only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also others, just are not ready for serious changes. In my opinion, absolute absence of relations between Russia and Georgia has its negative role in this regard. Of course, this is not directly linked, but the whole regional atmosphere is unnatural.

The tunnel, along which Armenia and Azerbaijan are stepping, is part of a larger tunnel along which the whole region moves. I think that now the situation is not as desperate as before, but this is only sparkle, glimmer of light is at the end of the tunnel.

Q: What impact does the economic crisis have on former USSR states?

A: Undoubtedly, the crisis has severely hit many countries around the world, especially former Soviet republics. Those who lacked a financial cushion as Russia and Azerbaijan suffered most of all. Moreover, Russia found itself in a potentially very profitable situation as a number of post-Soviet countries are in dire need of financial assistance and asked for money even from those countries whose relations with Russia can not be described as brilliant.

This was to allow Russia to build closer relations with these countries, but it did not work. We see that countries that are in difficult circumstances and even on economic dependence on Russia, such as Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia behave very independently. But Armenia is dependent to a lesser extent and its relations with Russia more even.

On the other hand, those countries do not have other sources of support. China is highly reluctant to provide assistance excluding the cases solely on the basis of its own advantage. But the EU is ready to extend the hand of political support, but the hand does not contain abundant financial piece.

Q: What is the state of affairs around the question of the possible use of the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan by Russia and the United States? How seriously was this issue discussed during Barack Obama’s visit to Moscow?

A: I think this issue was not discussed during Obama’s visit to Moscow. The parties did not debate the issue of missile defense. According to a memorandum signed by the parties, Washington and Moscow have found a temporary solution which calls for delayed final decision. This is the minimum compromise which suits both parties.

The question of missile defense will be key at the next stage when will the new START treatya will be signed because once it is not resolved, there will be no changes in further weapon reductions.

Nevertheless, I think that at the expert level Vladimir Putin has idea of use of radar in Gabala and Armavir radar. Moreover, I have heard from senior American politicians that the idea of Putin sparked their interest to the discussion. Incidentally, it is widely believed in the United States that the Bush administration has been wrong, in fact, abandoning the use of radar data.

So I think that the possibility of creating a joint missile defense system with inclusion of the Gabala radar station is real, but this issue is very delicate and will depend on whether positive momentum in relations between the United States will appear.

/Day.Az/