Outcome of Ukrainian presidential elections is of great importance for Russia: Russian expert

Day.Az: What is the reason behind new tense relations between Russia and Ukraine?

Aleksei Vlasov: There are several reasons. But one of the most important is that the year 2010 is approaching. The election campaign in Ukraine will start soon. The outcome of presidential elections in that country represents great importance for Russia. Because it is important to know what part of the political elite of Ukraine Moscow will have to deal in the coming years. Authorities are conducting an internal audit of the bilateral relations both in Russia and Ukraine. And the way they understand this audit was reflected in Dmitry Medvedev’s a message to Victor Yushchenko and in Viktor Yushchenko’s  response letter to the Russian leadership.

Q: Can the current situation lead to economic changes? In particular, the next rise in Russian gas prices?

A: I think that now in a period prior to the election campaign in Ukraine, the Russian authorities will act fairly carefully and do not allow evil-wishers in Kiev to use Russia's card as a tool for internal political struggle. Therefore, I think, any conflict related to the gas sector, energy resources, now several months before the election, will be used as a tool to support Yushchenko's falling ratings against with his two opponents - Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovich.

Q: Can the tension impact prospects for realization of energy projects such as Nabucco and Odessa-Brody-Gdansk?

A: I think all major political and economic decision by the Ukrainian should be adopted after the election campaign completes. I think Kiev will be a completely different power, perhaps, opposition to the current one.

But given the logic of Viktor Yushchenko’s action, it is possible that on the contrary, in the last six months of his presidency (and I think that it is hardly possible to speak about his real chances for re-election), he will do everything possible to expedite implementation of most projects that considered as projects opposing Russian interests. The tone of the reply letter byYushchenko which was published in the media shows that this is how he understood the logic of development of Russia-Ukraine relations.

Q: How will Dmitry Medvedev’s statement impact relations between Russia and former Soviet states?

A: The fact is that the case of Ukraine is as individual as the case of relations between Moscow and Tbilisi. Therefore, in general, the whole situation around the Russia-Ukraine relations can hardly be transposed to the relationship between, lets say, Moscow and Astana and Moscow and Baku. Thisi is just example. Here there is completely different logic and different interests. The most important thing is that, for example, in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan state is headed by politicians who actually carry out multi-faceted foreign policy taking into account the national interests first and foremost, but with the understanding towards interests of both Russia and West.

As to Yushchenko, he is steady in his actions. He made a clear stake on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union and NATO without thinking that this is choice of Yushchenko personally and that part of the elite which supports him. This is not the choice of the entire population of Ukraine and it does not relate very much to the national interests and the interests of security of Russia. Therefore, I do not think that the situation regarding Dmitry Medvedev’s message to Viktor Yushchenko can be projected as relations between Russia and other post-Soviet countries.

/Day.Az/