Progress requires concessions from Armenia: Moscow Carnegie Center director

Day.Az: Why talks on resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict did not reach breakthrough despite numerous high-level meeting held under Moscow’s patronage?

Dmitry Trenin: In principle, I did not expect any breakthrough. I think that this conflict will still be discussed by diplomats for a long time and only they, I hope, will solve the conflict by diplomatic means. Azerbaijan and Armenia is not ready now reach solution minimumally acceptable to the other side.

I think Russia made a right move to engage in settlement of the conflict and withdrew from the position that was characteristic for it in the previous years, when it defiantly avoided a solution to the conflict laying everything on shoulders of all the conflicting parties. Now there is a desire to participate in the settlement of the conflict. This desire is attributable to Russia’s intention to strengthen position in the post-Soviet area. That is right, because country’s is strengthened not by force factors, but thanks to international relations. Peacemaking may be one of those benefits. But this has not worked yet in case of Russia. On the other hand, I do not think that if someone else undertook peacemaking, the case will be better.

However, Russia’s position on the Karabakh conflict is still based on reality: solving the conflict is up to Baku and Yerevan. International mediators can only help both parties in reaching agreement. We are in the phase of finding a solution to the conflict.

Q: To What extent the expectations that a framework agreement to resolve the Karabakh conflict will be signed either at the end of this year or beginning of the next year?

A: No major document on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict has been signed since 1994. In current situation, any progress in resolving the conflict requires concessions from Armenia. Because the regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian are under control of Armenian armed forces and Armenians will have to liberate them. From point of view of internal policy, it is difficult for Armenian leadership to do it. We are well aware under what circumstances President Ter-Petrosyan left the government. The current president is not going to follow his example.

Armenia would have to get something so that to offset the risk which Armenia would undertake by giving consent to the option of the conflict resolution. For example, the resolving of the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo was undertaken by the European Union whose membership is sought by both states and accordingly the EU can give them something that both parties just want most of all.

Russia, unfortunately, lacks resources to stimulate Baku and Yerevan in a similar way. Indeed, what Russia can offer except venue for regional summits?

Q: Is Russia not interested in settling the Karabakh conflict at least for sake of opening land connection with Armenia, which was interrupted by the conflict with Georgia?

A: Of course, Russia could do so, but this way is longer. I think that Russia understands that today it does not have the resources necessary to achieve progress in the Karabakh settlement. In fact, any intermediary, be it Russia, the EU or the United States understands that eventually it will have to pay for the settlement of the conflict. After all, how many Europeans and Americans have paid to Israel and Palestine for their reconciliation! That is, they not only maintain the Palestinian Authority, but the Americans have for decades supported Israel’s economy and its military power.  It is clear that any agreement reached by Israel and Palestine would be a substantial help for the United States and Europe. Russia has no such opportunities. If Russia were democracy, it would be hard for the Russian government to prove to his people the need to spend Russian funds on peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the absence of large funds of Russia itself.

In fact, Russia stands only for peacekeeping, but there is no major work. The meeting between presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan on the territory of Russia is not enough. In reality, Russia's representative must not leave Baku and Yerevan, but spend the day and night in those cities to work. A periodic visits by co-chairs of OSCE Minsk Group are carried just for tick.

Nonetheless, Russia, looking at all the post-Soviet space as its own, does not want others to engage in peacekeeping here.

/Day.Az/