OSCE lives with a 'frozen conflict' of Karabakh: expert

Day.Az: Given the latest meeting on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, along with the president of Russia, many claim that these meetings were constructive and positive. Do you believe that the conflict could be solved by the end of 2009?

Rene Wadlow: It is difficult to analyze the progress.  In such long-drawn out negotiations, it is often what is not said, what demands are not repeated that is more important than what is said. I have always been optimistic about the possibility of positive compromises concerning Nagorno-Karabakh and disappointed by the difficulties of finding common ground.

Q: Do you think that the conflict could be solved by military ways?

A: My conclusion is that everyone has learned to live with a 'frozen conflict'.  There is certainly no military action that can be useful.  We saw that an effort to change a 'frozen conflict' by military means in South Osetia has made the situation worse and has increased general tensions in the area. Obviously, the fact that there are military in the world colors what can be done, but wisdom requires not having to use them.

Q: There was an opinion that the OSCE group doesn’t really have much impact on the Karabakh conflict, and if this continues, Baku’s position on the conflict could change. How can you comment on that?

A: I think that the efforts of the OSCE are well intended, but at least as far as the public record, not much has been achieved.  In all negotiations, there is a lot that goes on which is not part of the public record, and so it is always difficult to judge.  Personally, I think that the OSCE relies too much on former ambassadors and others who come from government civil service and not enough from civil society willing to think in a different style.  However, at this stage, it is useful to keep the OSCE involved.

Q: Is it possible for the European Union to take part in resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? How could it be useful for the conflict itself?

A: I do not think that the EU as a secretariat can do more than the OSCE does.  It is basically the same countries and the same type of personnel.  It might be useful to involve the European Parliament.  Since the recent elections, there are new members who might be helpful.  But, basically, I think that the core of the OSCE lives with a 'frozen conflict' and nothing is pushing them to more activity, though perhaps Turkey seems to want to play a more active regional role. Perhaps, outside the OSCE but part of the region, Iran might want to do something positive to get people thinking of something other than its contested election and its nuclear program.

/Day.Az/