Sergey Markedonov: "Azerbaijan is not interested in "laying eggs" into West's basket, like Georgia does"

- By recognizing independence of South Ossetia, Russia has created a problem for Azerbaijan, which has its own territorial conflict over Nagorno Karabakh. What will be the focus of the presidents' talks?

- The current visit of Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev is of special importance in the history of the bilateral Russian-Azerbaijani relations. This is a visit of the leader of the Caucasus state after "a five-day war" and Russia's recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The leaders of the two countries will have to respond to a number of basic questions, which are of great importance for security of not only this region, but also the entire Eurasia. Not considering Georgia, Russia and Azerbaijan have issues, which need discussion. I think that one of the priority issues of talks will be the establishment of the Azerbaijani-Russian relations not bound to Georgia. We have many similar problems, including the Caspian Sea, borders at the Dagestani section, problems of Islamic fundamentalism and, finally, the upcoming presidential elections in Azerbaijan, which are of great importance for Russia's support to Azerbaijani powers during parliamentary elections in 2005 created a political background
for the relations between Putin and Aliyev and the entire Azerbaijan.

- Will Moscow transfer the precedent of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to other unrecognized formations? Azerbaijan is extremely concerned over Russia's position on Nagorno Karabakh issue...

- Presently, it is important for Russia to show that recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is not a secret plan of Moscow to restore the Soviet Union. This is a reaction to a definite challenge. Speaking conditionally, Russia is repeating the US methodology of Kosovo. It does not mean that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are a special case.

Moscow's positions are quite different on Nagorno Karabakh. The Russian diplomacy will try to persuade the partners that it is necessary to continue talks where there is a possibility for the peaceful, not the forced, resolution of the conflict. I think the talks between the two presidents will be constructive as Azerbaijan is not interested in "laying eggs" into West's basket like Georgia does. Baku has its own interests, coinciding with those of Moscow.

- Do you think that the presidents will discuss the intensification of Turkey's role in the South Caucasus region, especially Ankara's intention to mediate between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan?

- Naturally, this aspect will also be discussed. They will also discuss the Turkish project of the Caucasus problem. Another question is that, unfortunately, this is unreal today. The interests of the South Caucasus states are too diverse. But it is better to discuss something than to be at war.

- Is Moscow interested in the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict? Does Moscow need Baku in the light of the recent events in the region?

- As a good partner, Baku is important for Moscow. This was reiterated by Dmitri Medvedev during his visit to Baku. Azerbaijan is an economically developing and politically stable country, despite being a Muslim. What do we imply by saying "the resolution"?

It is necessary to understand that the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict is not a victory of either Azerbaijan or Armenia. Resolution is concessions which the sides will make. It is important to find the formula of a compromise, but not a victory. I think Baku is well aware of what the forced resolution of the conflict means.

- Georgia's situation showed that it is now impossible to rely on the West and the United States. Do you think this fact may push Azerbaijan towards to Moscow?

- Today Azerbaijan is not facing such a choice. Georgia made a choice towards the West and this did not have a positive result. Any state settles its own national tasks, considering the contacts with regional players. West is a player, like Iran, Turkey and Russia.

The attitude towards Nagorno Karabakh differs from that of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If the West is against South Ossetia and Abkhazia, its attitude towards Nagorno Karabakh is different. Your political scientists attempt to "try" Georgia's case on Azerbaijan. But the case is not suitable for it as Baku's external policy is a policy of swings.

By some objective reasons, Azerbaijan can not turn towards Russia. West is always criticizing Azerbaijan for violation of human rights and liberties and low level of democracy and so on.

During the "five-day war" Ilham Aliyev did not attend the meeting in Tbilisi, like some other presidents did and Moscow, certainly, appreciated this fact.

/Day.Az/