Azerbaijan: between the Kremlin and the White House, or how to live in a bipolar world?

Whatever some Russian political scientists say, it has again become bipolar: by its military aggression against Georgia the Kremlin signaled to the world that the process of the USSR transformation into a new state, which has the same claims for ruling over the world, has completed. Today the world needs to base of the fact that Russia is a real rival of the United States in their fight for world leadership. It is especially important that such small countries as Azerbaijan need to realize it, for the combat for influence in the South Caucasus region between the United States and Russia has just entered a new, fierce stage of its development.

Bloodless victory of Washington

First of all, it should be noted that only one country-the United States-has won from Russia's military aggression against Georgia. Let's see: the United States did not take part in the Russian-Georgian conflict, which means no victims from its side. But both Georgian and Russian armed troops had losses. I do not even speak of thousands of Georgian and Ossetian refugees.

Now let's speak about the diplomatic consequences of this conflict. Georgia only received a chance to be regarded by the world society as a small country, which needs protection from Russian aggression. Moreover, she got a change to make its NATO accession real.

But could this country return South Ossetia and Abkhazia under its jurisdiction? No. Was it able to secure its cities and ensure security of the civilians? No. Is there a risk that Georgian people will regard victims as excessive? Undoubtedly. Especially, if the United States do not take any real steps for restoration of the territorial integrity of Georgia, that is for establishing Tbilisi's control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Such actions will never be taken. They are not planned by the United States, which is used to reach its goal at the cost of others' blood. These goals have been attained in this very case, as Russia today has real chances to face international condemnation of its actions, turning into an isolated country, and there is a great possibility that the process of Russia's condemnation will continue. Even Mr.Rogozin admits that relations between NATO and Russia will change. Now the missile defense is being established in Poland.

Who has lost from it? Certainly, Russia. And who has won? Certainly, the United States. The White House managed to present Russia unfavorably for the latter, without a single shoot, without a single loss among soldiers. Is it possible to say that the White House was not ready to it, that official Washington was not prepared to Russia's use of force against Georgia? Certainly, no, as for a superstate, which could attain USSR collapse, it is ridiculous to speak of the lack of information in such an issue of nearest perspective. It is clear to everyone that upon completion of the cold war, the Kremlin lost control over a big political-economic bloc and the military alliance-NATO-started to approach its borders, which means that Russia will try to return its status as soon as possible.

The fact that Mikhail Saakashvili's attempt to settle the problem with separatists in South Ossetia by force, may lead to military aggression by Russia, which supports separatists on the whole area of the former USSR, was also realized in the United States, not only because the Kremlin has never concealed its antipathy to Saakashvili's Georgia. Not only because, the Kremlin had a formal ground to get involved into this conflict under pretense of protecting "the citizens of Russia", but also because the present-day world system of satellite communication is being spied by the US e-reconnaissance. Almost all private and state messages, sent by phones, fax or e-mail are being spied. The task of the US agency of national security-a giant center, spying the whole world, which has about 100,000 people, working on it and whose budget reaches $16,000,000,000, is to spy the telephone calls, fax, e-mails and satellite signals even of insignificant concern for the United States. In this connection, it is at least untimely to say that Washington is not ready to military aggression by Russia against Georgia.

In these conditions, there is a suggestion that the United States has just betrayed Georgia in its geopolitical war with Russia.

For me it is a great question who is a bigger criminal: Russia, which openly demonstrated its aggressive nature, or the United States, which acted skilfully, attaining the settlement of its tasks at the cost of the blood of small Georgia?

What are we for the United States and Russia?

I am sure that we have witnessed just the first stage of confrontation between the fully consolidated Russia and the United States for influence in the South Caucasus region. It proves logically that confrontation between the OSCE Minsk group co-chairing countries will deepen and Azerbaijan will have to take it into account and try to get either Russia or the United States out of the list of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, for the differences between Washington and Moscow in their views on the future of the South Caucasus and on the ways of resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict may lead to unpleasant consequences for us.

Despite great differences in the views on the future of the whole South Caucasus region between Moscow and Washington, it should be admitted that the attitude to Azerbaijan by both Russia and the United States is purely of a customer. For example, Russia considers that Azerbaijan is just a province of this country, which separated from it due to the weakness of the Russian state, while the United States regards Azerbaijan as one of the petrol stations, which should be controlled for it not to go to Russia.

It means that struggle for our oil will deeper and acquire the most unexpected forms. Well, not only for ours. Let's recall that of 5 countries, which has the biggest oil resources in the world, the United States does not control only one of them - Iran. There were only two a couple of years ago, but they have already "freed" Iraq, which suggests that Washington will try to subdue Iran as well. Naturally, in the new conditions of a bipolar world, when Russia demonstrated the whole world its status of a recovered superstate, Washington's plans about Iran may face Kremlin's tough resistance. Naturally, Azerbaijan will suffer from this clash.

What should Azerbaijan do in these conditions? It should try to benefit from the clashes of the superstates in our region. But for this purpose it should be noted that both the United States and Russia do not care about the international law. They recognize the only law: the law of force. This means that we should become the strongest state of the South Caucasus in all spheres: economic, democratic, diplomatic and intellectual. We need to get firm and written guarantees of support of one of the two existent superstates, in the issue of their military and political assistance to the restoration of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Events in Georgia showed that it is impossible to believe simple promises, as it is impossible to believe Moscow and Washington that they want to see Azerbaijan as an independent and developed state. For them, we are just a small oil-rich country, which has an unsettled territorial conflict. For them, we are just the next stage of confrontation for leadership in the region and the world. If so, we will base on our pragmatic interests, being aware that we will not manage to escape confrontation between the two superstates in the new, bipolar world.

/Day.Az/