Elnur Baimov: "We have again witnessed the next diplomatic defeat of Russia"

- What do you think are the reasons of the current military clash between Georgia and Russia?

- The events, now ongoing in Georgia, whose integral part is South Ossetia, can be assessed as a new and, unfortunately, bloody stage of the geopolitical clash for influence in the South Caucasus region between Russia and the United States. It is clear that the United States undertake steps for extruding Russia from our region and thus establish a single control over this area, which is a strategical knot of energy and transport communications.

Naturally, Russia will never agree on leaving the region on the voluntary basis, for the empire ambitions of its working leadership, highly encouraged by large oil revenues, are a bad basis for comprehension of the current realities and predicting possible consequences of open military counteraction with Georgia, which we are witnessing at the moment. In the result, Russia allowed to involved itself into a military conflict with Georgia and it has been presented as an aggressor to the world society, while its influence in the region has been undermined.

In other words, we have all witnessed the next diplomatic defeat of Russia, which is also strengthened by the erroneous and unacceptably impulsive refusal of the Russian leadership to hold talks with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. No matter if the Kremlin wants it or no, but today the head of the Georgian state is Mikhail Saakashvili, which means that talks with him are inevitable.

- How will Russia try to justify itself for bombing Poti, Gorum, Maneuli and other cities and regions of Georgia?

- We have heard some Russian diplomats saying that Russia's actions are explained by "an attempt to protect the population of South Ossetia from "genocide" by Georgia. But in the eyes of the world society, which recognizes the supremacy of the principle of territorial integrity of the states over the national right for self-determination, in the eyes of a number of states, who have their own problems with separatism, such Kremlin's statements are unclear.

I would like to suppose that in current conditions, to justify itself, Russia will focus on the attempt to prove that Georgians were first to start fire, that they fired at the peacekeeping forces, while the main duty of the Russian leadership is to defend its peacekeepers.

I will not be a bit surprised if some "independent political scientists", disciplined by the Kremlin, will play on the revenge jingoism of the public on the "independent" Russian TV channels and will start to prove that in 1989 US forces intervened in Panama to overthrow general Noriega and the cause for intervention became a murder of the US servicemen at one of the bloc posts.

But these grounds, acceptable for average Russians, are absolutely inappropriate in the eyes of international diplomats, for it would be extremely difficult for Russia to prove that these were not Russian peacekeepers but Georgians who fired the first.

Moreover, Russia attacked different parts of Georgia, which were by no way the areas of the Georgian-South-Ossetian conflict, which makes Georgian positions in the diplomatic counteraction with Russia more advantageous.

- How do you view Azerbaijan's position in the said conflict?

- I view it as balanced and the only admissible one. Official Baku has openly supported the territorial integrity of Georgia, which is in fact the condemnation of Russia's actions.

At the same time, the leading Azerbaijani mass medias, including Day.Az, present the most objective and comprehensive information from the conflict area, filling the information vacuum, established by a number of problems with Georgia's access to internet and Georgian TV channels, watched by few people throughout the world.

In fact, it is we that oppose Russia disinformation medias, which have started the anti-Georgian hysteria on their TV channels by means of a one-sided provision of information, demonstration of terrifying materials about killed Georgian servicemen, who fought for the territorial integrity of the country, but who are now presented as fascists and barbarists, committing "genocide" of the Ossetian people.

I want to believe that this anti-Georgian hysteria in Russia will not cause serious consequences, such as the demonstrative "Lynch law" over the pupils of Georgian origin, who will soon attend Russian schools, and not encourage skinheads, who may start beatings of Georgians at Russia's streets.

I call on the Russian human rights activists to be ready to such developments and openly state their inadmissibility.

Speaking of Azerbaijan's support to Georgia, it should be reminded that the current actions of official Tbilisi, rule of democratic powers in this country, has become possible due to country's becoming a place of geopolitical clash of interests between Russia and the United States. This was possible because Georgia has become a transit country in the regional projects, implemented in the South Caucasus region.

I think it would be unnecessary to recall that the appearance and implementation of such projects as Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzirum gas pipeline and the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railroad became possible owing to the will and correct external policy of Azerbaijan.

In other words, Azerbaijan has firmly stated its future development of the region and openly helped Georgia. It can not and must not do anything more at the current stage, as the open military support of Azerbaijan to Georgia may turn our country into the conflict party, which is not just a mistake but a crime due to the unsettled Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

- How do you think this conflict will end?

- South Ossetia's further destiny will be settled in the direct dialogue between Russia and the United States. It means that it will not be recognized by anyone, but its status will not be defined in the next ten years.

As for the nearest perspective, the main events, I think, will flow in the political and diplomatic course, that is: Russia will be accused of aggression against a weaker neighbor and coarse interference with its internal affairs.

A global propaganda campaign on diplomatic, political and military protection of Georgia from Russia's aggression, whose actions were represented as an attempt of Russia's regime to suppress the just established Georgian democracy, will be initiated.

Everything will be considered as a political and legal basis for the soonest admission of Georgia into western international military and political institutions, primarily NATO. In turn, it will become a legal basis for deployment of any US troops, including strategic ones, in Georgia. It will lead to Russia's eventual loss of the South Caucasus region and creation of conditions for the growth of anti-American moods in Russia.

In the result, the fight for domination in the strategically important regions of the world will continue between the United States and Russia. This fight will become direct and more open and like in the years of cold the war the parties will just throw off their masks.

/Day.Az/